New England Fall Foliage Forecast for 2023
Well, my foliage friends, it’s January, so it’s time for my New England Fall Foliage Forecast, looking forward to October, and guess what we might see.
But! While this is good info there have been changes this summer so get down to the bottom and check the most recent updates to this forecast. *August update is the current forecast so sign up for my newsletter to stay in the loop. Fill in your email below to get my Free foliage reports, forecasts, and recommendations on scenic drives in New England!
It looks like the La Niña system is weakening and we are moving into ENSO neutral later this spring and possibly into El Niño later this summer and into the fall. If you are scratching your head about what this means, I will do my best to make this simple and how it will affect our plans.
This past fall (2022)
My fall foliage forecast went “pretty well” (So-So) in 2022, I said it should be a slow burn and it was but it really didn’t feel like it should have been… Confused? During the spring/summer, we saw average rainfall in northern New England and drought in southern New England. The temps started dropping in late August going into September just like we always hope they would. BUT!!!
Did the fall colors come on early like I thought they would? Nope, the 1st of October arrived and peak color was elusive.
It wasn’t till a week later (6-10 October) that we would see the explosion of really brilliant fall colors show up to knock our socks off. You can read this blog article to see what a week later would do to the fall colors.
Ok, Will conditions from 2022 affect the fall colors for 2023?
Nope! Maybe, I think so? (Remember this Is my opinion only) Past years don’t directly affect the following but things like drought and insect damage can weaken trees over time. These “cumulative” effects can cause the weaker trees to die out and they will be replaced by other trees. (Possibly NOT Maples!!!)
Down and Dirty Fall Foliage Forecast Elements for 2023
In other words, these are the things I am looking at for my fall foliage forecast…
Drought/Rainfall
Right now (late January 2023), there is no evidence of drought in New England. and if we get decent snow/rain through spring and “average” rain through summer, the trees will be happy. Happy trees mean the leaves stay on the trees during wind/rain events. It also means that during the dreaded “slow burn” fall the leaves will stay on the trees longer giving us a more pleasing foliage season
As seen in the image above, the trees put on a good (if not a great) show in 2022. A slow burn year but as this image shows the trees at dawn over Barnard Vermont were as close to the peak as you can get. I did notice that some trees are bare but for the most part, they are fully leafed on 10 Oct. The only green trees are pine trees.
Temperature for Fall 2023
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So far this winter (2022-2023) it has been warmer than many winters and we have gotten decent rain in southern New England but the snow while lacking down south has dropped a bit more in VT/NH/ME in the past week or two in January.
As we go into spring I expect to see an early leaf out and the spring into summer might be a little warmer in New England but HOW MUCH is the question? I’m not trying to forecast the weather but based on the expected departure from La Niña and into the expected El Niño, I think it’s safe to say that we’ll (probably) be facing a Slow-Burn Autumn. Read what I mean about a Slow-Burn here.
Putting it all Together
Ok, so I think the September 2023 fall colors will be spotty with good color (not peak) being found in Northern Vermont (limited), Northern New Hampshire (North of Route 26), and North of Rangeley Maine to the Canadian border.
Better fall colors will be found by 1 Oct (Peak in very limited spots) in the above-listed locations and early color showing in the NEK (Northeast Kingdom and Green Mtns), Northern White Mountains (North of the Kanc, Route 112), and better colors from a line drawn from Rangeley, Monson, and Millinocket, North.
Columbus Day weekend “should” be showing us peak colors across the central areas of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Early colors will be showing in southern New England and spotty colors in Connecticut and Rhode Island. Central Massachusetts will be spotty and the Berkshires “MAY” be at peak due to elevation but they are Always hard to call.
Before you go any further, check my article on learning how to search for the perfect fall colors.
After Columbus Day Weekend (CDW)
I expect and “HOPE” to see peak extend past CDW and if we see average rainfall and less insect damage, the peak fall colors may stay with us in the more northern areas through the second week of October and down into Massachusetts through Halloween.
Is Southern New England going to perform in 2023?
Well, this remains a question mark and depends much on what Mother Nature does for us. I expect a moderate winter and if the spring and summer give us decent rainfall and more moderate summer temperatures (Low 90s at most) then I think we should late fall colors from mid-October to into November.
More Current Fall Foliage Forecasts/Reports listed
Here you will find all the forecasts that I make this year and the reports as well. OR you can bookmark my forecasts and reports page and they will be listed there as well.
Current Foliage Forecasts for 2023
Current Foliage Reports for 2023
This closes out my initial 2023 Fall Foliage Forecast. It is not written in stone and is still very early. I expect it to change over the next few months when we see what the actual weather is that New England receives.
Jeff Foliage Folger
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Hi Jeff! We are planning a 2023 fall trip. Found your website and wow there are so many useful information! Thank you! A few specific questions:
1. We are driving from DC, and want to do VT (VT100) – white mountains – Acadia National Park. If you have to pick, would you pick 9/30-10/9 or 10/5-10/15? I know it’s a long way out but wondering what an average year will be like.
2. Between VT100 and white mountains, which area peaks first? I know Acadia is a lot later but I don’t aim to see peak colors there anyways. But want to make sure we hit it in the right orders between VT and NH. To be more specific, we want to do Killington, Woodstock, Stowe, and Groton State Forest in VT, then drive to white mountains, and head to Acadia last. This makes most sense driving wiseBut I am worried this order is reversed in terms of peak times between the VT and NH spots.
3. How about Wilmington and Stratton mountain area? We technically pass these areas on our drive up. But if they peak way later then we will not plan on spending much time in these places.
Thank you!
I had a meltdown on my website so I’m working to re-establish all of it, so I may come back and post some links later for reading…
I like the 9/30 start date but since you want to throw Acadia in there you better go with the 10/5 to 10/15.
VT100 is at the foot of the Green mtns and it stretches from Newport in the north to the Massachusetts border in the south… So it all depends when you jump on it as to which section will be in color… You knew I’d say that, right?
In this order tends to be good. Groton SF, Stowe, Woodstock, Killington (also you will note is North to South) North of the White Mtns will turn first in NH but the White Mtns will be (or should be) in full color around the 5-10th.
In Maine you could also hit the Eustis Maine (North of Rangeley) as they have been turning early in recent years)
I’m going to stop this here and (maybe) comeback later with some links Once I get more of my website working
Thank you! I am surprised that you actually like the 9/30 start date if not considering Acadia. I’ve noticed you usually recommend around Columbus Day weekend for VT and white mountains. But I went the extra mile and booked lodging for both sets if the dates, and can now make the final decision around 9/20. Phew!
Another question: what do you think of adding lake placid area to this itinerary? Since Yu recommend starting from Stowe then go south, I looked it up and I can do something like lake placid – Stowe – Groton sf – Woodstock – white mountains – Acadia. I think this would be the right order of peak times.
Your blog focuses on New England, but curious to hear your thoughts about the Adirondack.
Thanks again!
The reason I say 9/30 is a good start date is that I don’t know exactly where you are going to be approaching from, so I’m winging it…
The Adirondacks are a great explore at any time and especially in the fall. BUT… I have only seen them from the Vermont side of the Lake… Maybe someday.
To me it doesn’t matter what you add or subtract but it’s more important to remember that as small as New England is, that is still a lot of driving. Maybe you have mopeds or bikes or a car being towed
behind the class-A.
If you are doing your exploring in the Class-A each day then to me that is a tough haul. No dirt roads for that monster. and if you only do 100 miles in a day exploring
and not 100 in a straight line to get somewhere, then this means you will only be moving across the map a little each day.
There are so many unknowns at the moment that I don’t know where to start, but slow and sure is always a good way to cover the ground you intend to cover.
Got it thanks! We will be driving from DC, so about 8 hours directly to either killington or lake placid. Since you recommend north to south in VT, I figured it could make sense to do something like 2 nights in lake placid, 2 nights in Stowe, 1 night in Woodstock, 2 nights in Conway, 2 nights in Acadia, then one night somewhere in ME or MA on the way home from Acadia.
And the start date can be 9/29 or 10/5 depending on the conditions by mid Sep.
Hi Jeff, Great website! We are planning to visit the New England fall foliage for the first time this fall! We will be flying in from the Austin,Texas area wanted to know what airport we should fly into to make the most out of our 5 day trip? (October 6-10) We were thinking of definitely driving through Stowe, Woodstock and Killington. Thanks so much!
Well hoping for another great year… we’ll see as we get closer
Hi, Jeff. We have a 40′ Class A and are planning to do our first leaf peeping trip this year (yea! retirement is September 8! My husband wants to start at Fort Kent and finish in Key West. What route would be best? Should we park somewhere and make a day trip of going to up to Fort Kent and then back down? Where should we start on our way down? All help is appreciated. We’re experienced RVers, but we’re from Texas and have very little knowledge of New England. Thank you.
I’m assuming you are starting somewhere outside New England and there are so many routes you could take… it boggles the mind… Now as I tell everyone I don’t do itineraries but my thought is this. You don’t say how you are arriving at Fort Kent. If you are planning to go up into Canada and across to Montreal and come south into Maine, I will suggest otherwise. To maximize your New England fall foliage pleasure, I would arrive in New York (Not NYC) on 1 Oct. Staying off the highway maybe seeing Norwich, Cooperstown, into Schenectady.
I would slowly make my way across Vermont and either up either Route 7 or Route 100 through Vt or pass through Brattleboro across Route 9 in New Hampshire. (its now around the 2nd or 3rd of October).
I would zig-zag back and forth between NH and VT over the next 5-7 days (I did say take your time) I would come across either Route 2 or 26/16 into Maine. You could hit Route 201 and take that up into Canada, up and over and back down and cross into Fort Kent. (7-10 Oct)
You should still have fair fall colors in this most northern area and coming down Route 11 or Route 161 to Caribou seems to be likely because there just aren’t that many roads and I would pick more coastal routes like routes 9, 1, 202. The coastal areas of Maine are some of the later areas to turn and places like Acadia National Park are best after the 15th of Oct which is where my (non) itinerary should have you when you hit Acadia. Camden is another beautiful place to stop in at.
Now the reason I’m not naming a hundred places to visit is that it would take me days if not a week to start listing them and that is why I write my blog. I want to give you point-outs for possible routes and not direct your whole trip. So I hope this helps…
Hello Jeff,my thoughts for a 1st fall foliage trip is to fly in & out of Boston,drive thru New Hampshire,
vermont & Maine then down the coast to Boston,max of 2 weeks,any advice would be appreciated to make this a memorable trip for my wife especially,she’s always wanted to see the fall foliage on the east coast,also we’re both in our 60’s but can walk/hike moderately,thx
Well Ruben, I would look at the 6th to the 20th of October. This should give you (in most years) great fall colors in the Green to White Mountains of VT & NH. I would be traveling back and forth between the 2 locations from 6-14 and then meander my way across into Maine on Route 2 or 302. If you have time, drive slowly to Mount Desert Island. There are tons of easy trails to explore and Acadia National Park and then drive slowly to the south along the ocean till you get back to Boston.
If you shorten the timeline I would still do 2/3 in NH/VT and 1/3 in Maint.
For places to explore, try my locations by state page. There you can choose a state and see all my articles listed for that state.
Also on the main menu you will seeing the planning heading and under that you will see listings that might be helpful.
Good Luck
Hi Jeff, last fall foliage road trip was 2018 and we were 1 week short. We flew into Boston them Portsmouth > Portland > Conway > Concord > Brattleboro and back out of Boston.
Now wanted to try again flying into New Haven then road trip and back out of New Haven. (Sun -Thurs)
What do you think will be the best times in October?
You don’t say what dates you are planning on but your location of New Haven Connecticut would indicate 15 -25 October. I would plan on driving up through the Litchfield Hills along Route 7. I would also plan during the earlier part of the dates to venture up into Massachusetts and the Pioneer Valley. All the places along Route 5 tell me to visit. from all the Hamptons, North, South, East and West Hampton. Over to Palmer (if you like trains) and Sturbridge visit OSV.org to find out about that. Back into CT along Route 169 and hit the towns of Woodstock, Putnam, and Pomfret. You’ll find out why they call this the Quiet Corner of CT.
If you head south to Essex you can visit and take a ride on the Steam train along the river… I hope this helps
Planning a trip September 22-October 1. Am I wasting my time for fall color? A lady in Bennington told me today that the last week of September usually has good color there. This is for my mother who is 79.
Well if you are planning on Bennington Vermont, then you want to be there a week or two earlier than the 22nd. 7-15 will be better and if you want to go up Route 100 (or 7) North lean to the early side of that. Enjoy the memories that you make with your mom because as I know the time we have with our parents is fleeting. There are lots of Historical/Scenic places to visit on Route 7, like Hildene in Manchester VT (home of Todd Lincoln), The Shelburne Museum, The Ethan Allen Homestead and Museum., from there cut over 104A to 104 to cambridge (several covered bridges in this area of 104/109. Cut down 108 through Smuggler’s Notch
Depending on the fall colors, if they are still early head north east to the Northeast Kingdom or if its late head south on Route 100. going south of Stowe you have Cold Hollow cider mill, and Ben & Jerry’s factory and even the Vermont Teddy Bear factory… What I have listed is a multi-day journey. Based on your moms age these places are all easy to navigate and get around. If you travel after Columbus Day weekend, you might be able to forgo making reservations but the fall colors could be better further South. But unless a big storm comes through, the colors don’t just fall off the trees. they are on a dimmer switch and slowly lose their brightness and fall from the trees.
Enjoy
Hey Jeff thanks for this very informative website. I am planning a trip to New England for this fall. We will be driving from Boston and want to do a loop across Vermont and New Hampshire covering Burlington, Stowe, White mountain area. we are thinking of driving from Boston on 10/3 and returning by 10/11. Would 10/3 to 10/11 be a good time to see fall colors in Vermont and New Hampshire or should we move the trip to a week later?
I think you will most likely find great color around those dates barring a big storm then all bets are off…
Why are the leaves changing to fall colors in June his year
Where are you seeing the leaves changing?
But, depending on your answer, the leaves can be forced to change at almost anytime if the tree of the branch is sick. Generally the leave won’t start a real change until Sept and Oct when factores like the shortening of the daylight (which is the key element) and also moisture, dryness, and temperature help determine the process…
IF, you are referring to seeing people post pictures on their facebook and Instagram pages Like mine (https://www.facebook.com/NewEnglandFoliage/ and https://www.instagram.com/jeff_foliage/ ) then that is because I simply love the fall colors and chose to post them year round… Even when they are not currently present. I hope this helps a little…
Hi Jeff, I am planning a 2023 fall trip Girls trip 10/17-10/20- Its a short trip but it’s my 60th bday and it was the time I had available. We will fly in and out of Boston. What do you suggest?
I would say head out of Boston and hit the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, Stockbridge, Sturbridge village, Litchfield hills of CT, maybe a ride on the steam train in Essex CT, explore the quiet corner of CT (Route 69) A spooky stop in Salem and hit Boston’s Freedom trail (there is a ferry between Salem and Boston) or in other words you are a little late for The White Mountains or the Green Mountains of VT… But coastal Maine is a possibility as well.I hope this helps
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Hi! Thank you for your website- what a huge help! My husband and I are planning to fly into Manchester NH on October 3rd. I know you can’t make exact predictions but where would you most likely see the most color at that time in NH and Vermont? Thank you Jeff!!!!
Hi Trish, The date sounds great, you didn’t say how long you are staying (tues-Fri or maybe Monday) but as of now Driving up into the White mountains should be awesome and maybe to start north of the Whites. Dixville and Stark and Milan are usually good early. Conway and points south will be better later in the trip.
Over in the NEK or Northeast Kingdom you should find great color North of St Johnsbury to Newport but be sure to check out Groton state park Which shows good color early. Seyon park and Noyes Pond as well. Good luck…
Hi, we’re from Oregon and plan to visit our daughter who’s going to school in Manhattan for a trip up to New England 10/4/23-10/10/23.
We plan to be on the road (away from the City) on Fri-Sun, 10/6-10/8.
It’ll be our first time in the area.
Do you recommend an RV or a car/Hotel?
Can you suggest a route that is relaxing and gorgeous? And knowing our time is rather limited… where can we get the best bang for our buck, so to speak.
It would be nice to stay in one place and day trip, maybe two…
Thank you in advance!!
It feels like that should be such a long drive but Manhattan to Stowe is only 5.5 hours…
For those dates you will want to be in the NEK (Northeast Kingdom of Vermont or in the White Mountains of New Hampshire for the biggest bang for your buck. BUT this is Columbus Day weekend and it will be VERY busy up here. Vermont is a little less travelled and that can mean more relaxed…
Now if you are old hands in RVs then you could do that because hotels, B&Bs and motels are not as cheap as they used to be. BUT if you are not experienced in RVs then this is not the best time to be learning how to drive or tow one. This is up to you though.
If you click my affiliate links on the side of the page you will get supercheap deals to set up your stays.
I hate to say this but every road in VT and NH are scenic roads for me, I just love to explore. and you might look at this Gazetteer map book, I have a lot of these and for exploring it is the best.
As far as routes I would look at this page https://jeff-foliage.com/locations-state/ chose the state you want to explore and you can look over articles that I have written about the state…
I hope this helps
Hi I am traveling with my mom and will be in Stowe and New Hampshire between Sep 29 – Oct 3rd, do you recommend the travel route from Burlington on 29th to Stowe and returning on Oct 3rd from New Hampshire region back to Boston!
You should see some nice colors but further north, as you head to Boston they will fade to green for the most part. I’m not sure which route you are referring to but Route 112 in New Hampshire (the Kancamagus) should be very nice and Routes 3 and 302 should have nice color from NH into Vermont (VT). In Vermont Route 2 out of St Johnsbury west and Route 108 out of Stowe will take you through Smuggler’s Notch to jeffersonville… ALL these areas should be pretty, maybe not peak but I think you should see nice colors
Hi Jeff,
Thank you for your website. Great information. How will the recent flooding impact the foliage colors this fall?
this is what I answered to William with:
While I don’t think they will come earlier, to much rain can act as a stress on the trees and stress can make them turn early. But it also depends on the temps and daylight that we get. In 2011 when Irene dumped the rain on us, it also stayed warm and muggy into October and that means really late colors… so I’m holding out hope for seasonable cool temps and a return to normal conditions. And then I’m thinking we will be seeing good colors by the 1-3 October or even 5-8 for peak… but it depends on whether mother nature drops any more shoes on us…
We are flying into New Haven 8 Oct – 15 and want to do a 7 day road trip and end up in Mystic. It is difficult to find the best route to do a loop. (mainly middle area on map)
We fly into Boston a couple years ago and enjoyed it. (drove east coast to middle of New England and back)
Geez could you possibly be more ambiguous, uncertain, and vague?
Howard, we haven’t had an El Nino in over 3 years and the last time we had as much rain as we’ve had this summer was in 2011 and you want me to be exact????
We are in uncharted territory but!!! while I think it is going to be a bit tough this fall a lot will come down to the next 45 days of actual weather we receive.
I’m working on an August foliage update and the critical weather events with be IF… IF we dry out and do we get the cooler temps (60-70s daytime and 30-40s nights) And most every day sunny… I’m hoping but I’m not holding my breath…