Well, my foliage friends, it’s February, so it’s time for my New England Fall Foliage Forecast, looking forward to October, and guess what we might see. If you want my forecasts and fall foliage reports sent to your email automatically, enter your email below and you can stay up on what is going on in New England regarding fall foliage.

Peak Fall Foliage is why we are here… The Holy Grail of fall travels in New England

The fall foliage season of 2023 is behind us, will this season be any better?

I sure hope so! I think 2023 will be one of the worst in the books… Till the next one of course. In my opinion 2005, 2011,2017, and finally 2023 seem to be really bad years. Some people tell me that they felt 2007 or 2012 were oh so bad. But these are the years In MY opinion that stand out for one reason or another. But let’s review the facts as they stand right now in February.

This past fall (2023)

My fall foliage forecast went “pretty well” Up until July when the rains started and continued into November. I said it should be a slow burn and it was During the spring/summer, we saw average rainfall across New England till July and well that horse has been beaten to death. The temps started dropping in late September but there just wasn’t a continued drop. They would rise and fall instead of the needed drop of the temps into the mid to low 30s at night and bright sunny days in the 50s to low 70s.

OK, Will conditions from 2023 affect the fall colors for 2024?

It’s hard to say but 2023 was a Mast year for oaks, maples, and even white pines. So we should not see that this year so that is one less stress that the trees in New England will have to deal with. I prefer to look forward to what we can see in the near term. Things like the accumulated snowpack, winter into spring temps, and rainfall will affect the trees in the current year. but the stress of last year’s rainfall could be a holdover to this year but there is no way to measure it till the fall foliage season is over.

Down and Dirty Fall Foliage Forecast Elements for 2024

These are the things I am looking at for my fall foliage forecast… Going forward I keep an eye on rainfall/drought, temperatures, and to a smaller degree, the insect populations.

Generally as of the end of February, we have seen warmer than average temps across New England. Snowfall has been below normal. In northern Vermont, many farms started boiling map sap early but as of this week that has been shut down because the temps are in the low 30s, and looking forward should stay pretty frigid till March. March is coming in like a lion per the old folklore and we will have to see if it goes out like a lamb…

In like a Lion and out like a Lamb”

Read this article on lessons learned for the 8 April total solar eclipse…

As I was saying, going forward I look at…

We will have to take whatever Mother Nature throws at us. That is right everything you see here is guesswork on my part. I have no degree in meteorology or a Ph.D. I am an observer of the weather in New England and after more than 20+ years I like to think I have a clue. So what am I looking at?

• NOAA Climate Prediction
• Old Farmers Almanac
• Other sources from weather professionals

The climate prediction folks at NOAA say the El Niño that we went into last spring is losing its grip on us an we should be moving into an ENSO neutral by late spring or summer. Whether that holds us through the fall or it changes into La Niña is up in the air at the moment. But back to a La Niña is favored for this coming fall.

Drought/Rainfall

Right now (late February 2024), there is no evidence of drought in New England. and if we get decent snow/rain through spring and “average” rain through summer, the trees will be happy. Happy trees mean the leaves stay on the trees during wind/rain events. It also means that during the dreaded “slow burn” fall the leaves will stay on the trees longer giving us a more pleasing foliage season

As seen in the image above, the trees put on a good (if not a great) show in 2021. A slow burn year but as this image shows the trees at dawn over Barnard Vermont were as close to the peak as you can get. I did notice that some trees are bare but for the most part, they are fully leafed on 12 Oct. The only green trees are pine trees.

This is my artwork example of what a slow burn means

. Read what I mean about a Slow-Burn here.

Temperature for Fall 2023

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So far this winter (2022-2023) it has been warmer than many winters and we have gotten some decent snow in southern New England so that should be good down there. Up north the snow has been intermittent but I would say average for northern New England where they have had much more than southern New England.

As we go into spring I don’t expect to see an early leaf out. I know Paunxatawny Phil said an early spring but I think he was under the weather back on the 2nd of Feb and he was confused… But the daylight savings doesn’t change for 21 more days (dawn arrived at 6:35 this AM) and the first day of spring is March 19th, only 10 days later.

Putting it all Together

Ok, please remember that is very early BUT, I think we are going to see a slow burn as stated above but if Mother Nature is a bit gentler to us than she was last year, we could see some outstanding colors.

I think the late September 2024 fall colors will be spotty in Northern New England with good color (not peak) being found in Northern Vermont (limited to higher elevations), Northern New Hampshire (North of Route 26), and North of Rangeley Maine to the Canadian border.

Better fall colors will be found by 1 Oct (Peak in minimal spots) in the above-listed locations and early color will show in the NEK (Northeast Kingdom and Green Mtns), Northern White Mountains (North of the Kanc, Route 112), and better colors from a line drawn from Rangeley, Monson, and Millinocket, North. There should be really good color around Eustis and Stratford Maine because it just seems to show up early there. Why you ask? I think it has to do with the layout of the mountains and the way the Canadian air flows into this area.

Columbus Day weekend “should” be showing us peak colors across the central areas of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Early colors will arrive in southern New England with spotty to good colors in Connecticut and Rhode Island. Central Massachusetts will be spotty and the Berkshires “MAY” be at peak due to elevation but they are Always hard to call.

Before you go any further, check my article on learning how to search for the perfect fall colors. Or this one on finding peak fall colors.

After Columbus Day Weekend (CDW)

I expect and “HOPE” to see peak extend past CDW up north as peak moves south into southern New England. If we see average rainfall and less insect damage, the peak fall colors may stay with us in the more northern areas through the third week of October and down into Massachusetts through Halloween. OK, OK, I’m overly optimistic here but a leaf peeper can hope can’t he?

More Current Fall Foliage Forecasts/Reports listed

Here you will find all the forecasts that I make this year and the reports as well. OR you can bookmark my forecasts and reports page and they will be listed there as well.

Current Foliage Forecasts for 2024

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Current Foliage Reports for 2024
TBD until later in August. If you want the up-to-date reports as they come out, go back to the top and sign up for my blog articles to be sent to you as they come out.

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“I have just finished my preliminary 2024 Fall Foliage Forecast. However, it is still subject to change as it is very early and we need to wait and see the actual weather that New England receives over the next few months.”

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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