May 2024 Foliage Forecast: Slow Burn’s Potential Impact
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24Good Morning my foliage friends, it is warming up in New England and while spring didn’t arrive as early as a certain furry creature in Pennsylvania predicted, it hasn’t been a solid snow-filled winter since February either. So many factors play a part in what the colors look like in October that accuracy is at best, haphazard at this point.
Let’s look at the following:
- Daylight
- Temperature
- Precipitation
- Insects
- Storms
As always, three main components contribute to the changing of the fall colors. First is the amount of daylight, which is the main driver for the trees to shut down photosynthesis and allow the colors to shine. There is no forecasting to worry about with this. The days will get shorter no matter what I say and if they aren’t… In that case, we as a species have much more to worry about.
Now, the second and third, are Temperature and precipitation. These are the wild cards that cause you and me headaches trying to figure out when the fall colors will appear and how long they will stay on the trees. If the temps are moderate during the summer and peak temps in the 90s happen in July/August and then the temps start to drop in the first week of September THEN I’m very hopeful for great colors from late September into October.
Mix into this a soggy, dry, or balanced amount of rainfall, then the prognosis for October fall colors can be outstanding, or Blah. I can not tell you what we will get this far out and no weatherman would put their reputation on the line. (I have no reputation so that’s not a factor). I am more focused on what we are “actually” getting in the way of weather versus what we will be getting in 2 to 3 months. If I was that good of a fortune teller, I would have won the lottery several times over.
Temps heading into the Summer and into Fall
First up is the second contributing factor. The temps as we have seen for the past 10-15 years have been (constantly forecast) as “slightly above” and we have varying degrees of slightly above temps from May 2024 through next January 2025. As you will see in the charts below, The next eight months are expected to be slightly above temperature-wise. Only November (in white for equal chances of higher or lower temps) is the only month expected to be average. One thing to Keep in mind is that in 2020 and 2022, we had OUTstanding fall colors. So this above-average expectation for the temps has to be balanced with what we actually get.
Even if the temps are a little above, (I’m not talking 80s-90s daytime and 50s-60s nighttime) If we have sunny daytime temps at 75 versus 71 and nighttime lows at 38 versus 33 then I won’t be worried too much and we will see the fall colors arrive on time if not a little early. So from late August into September, I’m paying close attention to the daily hI and low temps. Remember… cloudy days don’t help produce the bright colors we love seeing during our Foliage season.
Rainfall from summer to Fall and impacts
Rainfall is all about balance and so far you can see in the graphics below that the current drought monitor has no significant drought in New England and the expected rainfall is just a little above average. Southern New England is showing better chances for more rain and we’ll have to see how this plays out.
We didn’t have heavy snowfall this past winter with a deep snowpack in the mountains. But New England has had more than its average precipitation since January between snow and rain. Unless the approaching summer is parched I don’t see us going into a drought. We’ll have to see what June – August actually brings to us for rain/sun.
Insect Damage from last year impacting this season
It seems that as of this spring, the population of the spongy moth has fallen off to insignificant levels for this year. This doesn’t mean you won’t see any damage due to insects but there are no infestations expected at this time. There are no alerts at this time outside of forest officials watching to see if any of the other populations of insects develop into a challenge.
Storms Damaging the Trees
Last July’s torrential rainfall that flooded the Connecticut River Valley from Vermont down into the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, and into Connecticut caused widespread damage. There will be localized forest damage in and around rivers that were flooded. But overall, I’m optimistic at this point.
What Jeff “Thinks” will happen
I think a slow-burn fall foliage season will be the order of the day.
The chances of an early fall are slim at this point. But we still have four months of summer to get through and that will be critical for what the fall colors WILL do. We’re probably going to be back in a La Nina this fall and winter and that may make the possibility of hurricanes making landfall greater than we want to see. Temps will be a little warmer than average which probably sounds like a broken record because every year, I’ve been saying the same thing. The question is HOW MUCH above average?
This next week (3rd week of May) We are looking at 3 days in the 80s. This could make for a very warm summer and if it continues… Well, I did not ask Mother Nature for it to be this hot.
I’m not currently expecting a drought but right now it depends a lot on how “balanced” the rainy periods are with the drying periods. We’re going to just have to watch what happens…
So overall I’m very comfortable with the way things are looking at the moment so make your plans for great color starting to show around the 1st of October with some areas like Northwestern Maine (Stratton and Eustis) showing decent/good color around 25-27 Sept.
Jeff’s Gut says…
The Northern White Mountains of New Hampshire should see the beginnings of good color to peak around 3-5 October. The Kanc 5-10 Oct, Conway 7-12 Oct.
The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will start to see good color around 1-3 October but its mostly more northern places like Montgomery, Jay, Newport, and maybe Island Pond getting earlier colors. As we move through the first week of October the colors will build but the peak will be slow to show itself.
Northwestern Maine has in the past few years, been showing decent to good color the last week of September and I believe that may continue. So if you must be early to New England, then try Stratton or Eustis in Western Maine. Aso Millinocket Maine which is south of Katahdin usually shows color around the 25th of September as well.
These are the starting areas in northern New England and from here the colors will begin to flow south during the Month of October. By the 15th of October, the colors are starting to get good in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island BUT!!! It really depends on the temps. Last year the nightly low temps in southern New England rarely got below 45 at night so the colors were really sloooow.
All in all, I’m thinking that this fall will be much better than 2023 BUT!!! Time will tell.
Jeff Foliage Folger
Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage
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Hi, Thanks for all the information::: planning a Vermont bike tour in mid-October (Windsor/Ludlow area). Hoping to see some colors along the way. However, would like to travel by car to another area in VT to see more colors – will this time of year be too late to catch some colors? Do you recommend an area, thinking White Mountain Forest area as an option but flexible. Thank you
“Do you recommend an area, thinking White Mountain Forest area as an option but flexible.” Hmmm, I recommend it all and all the time… 🙂
In general Windsor/Ludlow I think are usually 8-15 and usually it really depends on what we get. I have thrown out my guess but if by some weird chance we get cool weather in mid-Sept then it “could” be earlier than my dates. But remember I’ve thrown out these dates but in reality the fall colors don’t turn on entirely on the 6th and fall to the ground on the 15th. You will find a branch somewhere in Windsor on 20 September all in red. But it will be by itself. by the 25th there will be at minimum 14 trees in full color and by the 1st of Oct there will be more..
The goes for the colors leaving. I would think you will find trees in fall colors by the 25th but some will be bare and this is the way… Nobody, not even I can give you what you want. Hard and fast dates for when the fall colors will arrive and leave. I can give you guestimates which will get you in the ballpark
Thank you. I realized there is no magic crystal ball however, your ballpark is encouraging. I appreciate your time.
Oh, I have a crystal ball but it seems to always say the same thing… So I have to wing it… After 20+ years, I guess I know enough to be dangerous…
We are taking a NE and Canada cruise in mid October. I’m really
afraid it’s too late in the year. I told my husband that I think we’d be better off to spend the money on a road trip through The same area in early October. What do you think? We are in the western US and have never experienced the beautiful fall colors you get there. This is likely our last opportunity to travel to your side of the country and I’m trying to be as informed as we can. In the end, Mother Nature will do what she wants. I know 🙂 Just wondering what your opinion is 🙂
Well Christine, this requires more info. First, does the cruise include trips off the ship to explore places like Camden or Portland Maine? Mid October is a good time to be at the coast because that is when the colors get good there…
BUT… it pales in comparison to driving through the towns, villages, over hill and dale.
Now I have not done a cruise myself and maybe one of these days I will so I have incomplete data. But they do the driving and that is more relaxing. Pick a nice spot in the White mountains and you can spend a week exploring Vermont and New Hampshire to your hearts content…
If you do the drive pick up a gazetteer like this one for Vermont and New Hampshire…
If you only get off the boat to do the towns then a Maine gazetteer is not as useful.
Jeff –
My wife has always wanted to go to the New England area for the fall colors road tour through several states to see the trees and fall colors. We would drive rental car or bring our own. This year is our 50th wedding anniversary so this will be her gift from me!
The dates are flexible between September 15 – October 15 or 16th. Could you gives us some ideas when best to start this trip date wise in the New England area (looking at going to Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Upper New York area if we have the time. These are all options as we are flexible on where we go and time frame.
Also ideas on where we might stop over overnight in different towns for overnight stay’s would be great information for us if you could. I always ask locals if you were doing this trip or had family coming from out of town, where would you take them and where you you stay over night?
Looking at staying and driving the area for 2-3 weeks. Where to start trip and end trip would be great info. Thanks.
Sounds like the beginnings of a plan and to make it come together, I’m going to be both helpful and UN-helpful… 🙂
To start of I don’t do itineraries and if you want that level of help I will suggest talking to April, you can find links to her website on every article on my website. She has led tours for years and even makes a you-drive itinerary (for a price)
Now as far as dates. Sept 15 is nice but way early for serious fall colors. Start in NY state and visit lake Placid, Niagara Falls and then plan to slide over into Vermont on 1-3 October. Stay in Danville VT or someplace in the Northeast Kingdom (NEK) Don’t know what the NEK is, click this link.
After 2-3 days exploring there (should be 5-7 October) slide over to the White Mountains in New Hampshire. Bethlehem among so many others is nice or maybe down in Carrol NH. Check this page to see some places we’ve reviewed.
No you could stay in this area till Columbus Day or Slide back into Woodstock Vermont (beautiful Town) Some pricy hotels there or very nice B&Bs but She will enjoy them. (covered Bridge on the town square)…
No you are almost out of time so one more move down to Meredith NH on Lake Winnipesaukee. Hotels I’ve stayed at are Churches Landing (5 star price and you get what you pay for) but they also have Mill Falls at the Lake and that is more budget friendly but still something that will Wow your lady…
Ok, we have used up all your time and yes I left off Maine. While Maine is beautiful, it is also GInormous!!! and you would need a couple weeks more for that…
Start with this mindset. Less is more… Less driving and more relaxing. Take walks (or hikes) rent bikes, canoe, kayak, whatever you desire, but savor it… driving from tree to tree is my job, Yours is to explore, discover, and enjoy the wonderful things you find.
Order your Gazetteer for NH/VT (one book covers both states. Highlight all the roads you explore and fill the book with notes on what you find… AND then if you never come back, hand it to your kids for them to follow in your footsteps…
I hope this was more helpful than UN-helpful
Jeff Foliage
Jeff –
When is usually prime time for fall colors is the Woodstock, VT area and the White Mountains area in New Hampshire?
I would guess mid October (21-25 Oct)? or earlier in October?
Woodstock is 7-12 October and the white mtns are 1-10 Oct BUT!!!!!!!!! you WILL see colors both before and after this time depending on the weather… NOT 21-25 Oct
Hello! Thanks for all the good info on this page. So, wondering if we may be too early for colors 9/28-10/6. Flying in to Boston. Driving to Kennebunkport, Woodstock, Stowe, Burlington and then back to Boston. We are flexible if you think other locations may have more color.
Thanks much!
Well, you can go to Kennebunkport for the views and seafood but fall colors won’t really arrive till late October…
You might be a little early for serious color But Stowe/Woodstock will just starting to get pretty… Burlington is on the lake and will turn later (10-20 Oct) but get 20 miles or so away from the lake and things will be more normal… Drive from Stowe to Eastern NEK (Eastern VT) and you should see good color. Or head into the Northern White Mountains and see what you find there…
Will I see any colors on Halloween-first week of Nov in Salem Mass?
Historically speaking late Oct through November is the best color along the coast which includes Salem.
This article has Salem Common images captured on 3 November and this article on Snowliage shows a few pictures from 31 Oct-3 Nov in Salem.
This last article tries to balance the good to bad fall colors.
Bassically, a lot depends on what kinds of weather events we get between early October and your visit. So far the year is looking good for the Northeast and we are currently starting to see some dry areas in Maine and through Vermont into western Massachusetts. But if nothing changes too much, it still looks favorable… (I said the same thing one year ago and between 9-11 July 2023 we got a deluge) so I’m not looking for that much rain…
Good Luck in your planning and I hope this helps…
So do you think staying in Meredith, NH for peak colors would be more promising the week of October 14th (for instance Oct 16 -Oct 18) rather than the week of October 7th (ie staying in Meredith Oct 9-11)? or either week would do?
The colors move south as the month moves on and by the 14th I would be looking at the Lakes region around Winnipesaukee. Meredith is a lovely place to stay and you can still head north if needed and further south if the colors pick up speed. In general by the 14th you should be finding color down into Massachusetts. BUT a lot of that depends on the weather and temps we get during late Sept into October.
Thanks. We will be staying in Meredith and will be taking a train ride from Meredith to Plymouth and then back down to Meredith via Ashland. So I was trying to pinpoint which week I should do the train ride and overall visit. so I know its hard to pinpoint but possibly taking the train ride on the 11th vs the 18th would be the better choice?
appreciate any input as I am from the West 😉
I guess I would usually plan this train ride on the 18th. I’m looking at some pictures from October 19th 2023 (a notoriously bad year)
So the 18th can be good but if we are lucky like in 2022 as seen in this image of Hancock NH which is 50 miles SW of the Lakes Region taken on 13 October 2022 (5 days earlier)
Let me just say, you can’t win this guessing game battle with Mother Nature. Either you will get lucky or she will dash your dreams… ALL you can do is to make your best plans possible and enjoy whatever you get when you get here…
Jeff, Wanted to say thanks for your love of New England and the beautiful pictures. I lived in Thornton NH many years ago and just recently my son asked me about Mirror Lake (or as he thought–Merrill Lake.) I corrected him and went looking for articles about the same. as you can guess, not much out there for little ole West Thornton until I happened upon your foliage pictures and article on our beloved MIRROR LAKE! I copied them on Pinterest for him. Brought back so many memories. Thank you again, Linda
Thanks Linda, I’m always glad my writing about my travels helps people in one way or another. I was there a little late (13 Oct in 2019) but it was just the right time. we stayed across the road at the Pine Valley cabins…
Any word on the 2024 Northeast Kingdom Fall Foliage Festival dates for each town?
The dates referenced on my festival pages are current and final. https://jeff-foliage.com/fall-festivals/
click the link to go the NEK page with the town and dates.
Now that it’s September, what are your thoughts on Boston’s foliage the first weekend in November (1st-3rd). Thank you!
HAHAHA… you do realize that date is 60 days away… Historically Boston is good the last week through the first week in November… Except when it isn’t.
If we have one or more Hurricanes make land fall, then things could be less than advantageous for the leaves… The trees have had a good spring and summer and should stay on the trees all across New England.
It all depends on what we get… In the way of actual weather…
For instance Essex county Vermont has a frost alert for tomorrow morning. If we start down that road… we’ll just have to see what we get…