New England Fall Foliage Update, August 2024
Will La Niña or won’t La Niña… What I mean, is if and when La Niña happens, it looks like she will be a weak La Niña at best. So as of now (August) we are in the ENSO neutral phase and this will give us…
Well first let me cover some other factors I’m thinking about and then I’ll give you Jeff’s thoughts for Fall 2024… and what kind of autumn we are looking at…
The Science of the Fall Colors
I was asked this week by PBS “What is the science behind my forecasts”… I so wanted to tell them it was a magic 8-ball… One that I shake up and get my answers.
In reality, I have to say I read a lot of online material. I follow what NOAA publishes, I will also see what the Old Farmer’s Almanac has to say. I’m less sure of their “science” because they don’t publish how they come up with their statistics for forecasting. I also have several other Meteorological representatives.
Firstly, I want to clarify that I am not a scientist. I consider myself an observer of the natural world. I have become like the old man on the hill, watching the world go by and hopefully learning something along the way..
The true scientists observe the leaves. The study of woody plants is called dendrology and this is what this video on YouTube (click the link) is about—the science of the fall colors. I don’t qualify as a Dedrologist because I’m not into the science of it. I’m here for the beauty. But I read what they say…
Primary Indicators, Temps, Rain, Drought, Insects, Hurricanes, Oh MY!
For Temperatures, according to most sources, New England should once again be averaging above normal. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is my primary source and while they are difficult to interpret they are usually very accurate. Over the last 20+ years, they have been saying pretty much the same thing AND we have had some very nice fall colors during those years (outside of the bad ones like 2005, 2011,2017, and 2023). So this will have me saying once again that this is liable to be a Slow-Burn year. Don’t know what a “Slow-Burn year is read more here.
The Early September forecast (5-9 Sept) is calling for slightly below average temps through much of New England…(YAAAA!) This bears watching because, over these 2 weeks, we could start getting a great amount of color change BUT it depends on what these “Below Average” temperatures mean. If the highs are in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, it won’t mean too much. BUT!!! between 1 Sept and 9 Sept, the lowest lows are a few 49-degree nights with most in the 50s and this will not speed up the process… But we will see more reports of fall colors being spotted
If the lows each evening IN SEPTEMBER are in the low 40s to upper 30s, then that is a game changer. The problem is we won’t know until we get within a few days to a week prior for a forecast to be accurate… Then we will see what we get.
For Rain, I once again follow NOAA and we are looking at a slightly above chance of rain now through November. This can make for happy trees and happy trees hold onto their leaves longer. BUT… with rain comes clouds and this factor “can” mean less sunny days.
For Drought, Well this is not a drought year in New England… Do we have too much rain? Hard to say… Time will tell
For insect damage, we are looking pretty good in this area. I’ve driven through New Hampshire and Vermont and haven’t seen much in the way of insect damage, so for this year, I would rate insect damage as minimal.
For Hurricanes: This is one of those many areas that we just can’t do anything about. It will or it won’t be a factor. So far this season two storms made landfall in the southern US and made their way north to New England dumping massive amounts of rain. And while both storms did a lot of road damage, it’s too early to see the long-term effects on the trees. You and I will have to watch and see if a storm comes north at the end of Sept or October… Then we will be in trouble…
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What does Jeff Think? My Fall Foliage Forecast
I think many reports about a warmer fall season are misinterpreting the data. NOAA only says there is a “Percentage chance” of warmer temps in October. They miss this crucial point that NOAA is NOT saying how much above normal. So at any point in New England, there’s a 50-60 percent chance that the temperature will be 1/2 degree, 3 degrees, or even 10 degrees, warmer than normal. I repeat… NOAA is NOT saying HOW warm it will be, They are saying there is a decent chance that the temps will be SOME amount above normal.
For the next 10 days (through 9 Sept) we are seeing outstanding weather till 8 Sept when 8 and 9 Sept are rainy. The Lows are not forecast to be below 48 and if this holds we will ONLY see minor color progression. I even saw a few trees on my last day at work yesterday that had red leaves. You are ALL seeing these posts and I know the panic is setting in. These trees look a little stressed as the leaves are a little limp looking.
All stressed trees will start showing color in August and I call this NORMAL Early fall color.
So based on the different reports things are not looking too bad. The temperatures are critical in determining when the fall colors “really” get going. The trees (currently) seem happy, there’s minimal insect damage, and there hasn’t been much fungus killing back the leaves so far... So all in all when things do get started, we should be seeing some really good fall colors.
Right now the first 2 weeks of September are looking pretty good for the temps. Low temps are in the upper 40s to 50s across New England through 9 September. IF… IF by the 13th we constantly see lows in the mid to low 40s (with an occasional upper 38, then I’m going to be thinking 1 October is looking good across northern New England. If we keep progressing between 12 and 17 Sept with lower temps then an early fall is possible, but I don’t think we’ll see that.
I don’t know what will happen during the 2nd half of Sept and this is CRITICAL… but I’m still expecting the colors to be a week later than normal. This means good color around 25-30 Sept, and good to great color from 1 Oct to 6 Oct in the northern areas. From the Central to Northern areas, I would think the best chances for peak colors will be seen from 5 to 15 October…
It all depends on what kinds of ACTUAL weather, and temperatures we actually get… I hate to say it but this is the best I can do… At right NOAA shows they are expecting near normal to slightly below normal temps through 13 September… It’s up to Mother Nature at this point.
Barring hurricanes, tornados, or other freak weather events… We should see somewhere between very good to Outstanding fall colors…
There you go, that is your early Fall Foliage Forecast…
Jeff Foliage Folger
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Over the East, above-normal temperatures are mostly favored
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Aug ?? 2024-Fri Sep ?? 2024
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024???
While we have had more rain that I would like (I prefer this amount to be spaced out over months) Right now I still think we will be having a good fall season. The daytime temps are depressed due to the wild fires out west in the US and Canada. The haze reflects the sun that the Northeast would normally be getting so our daytime temps are at least through the next few weeks lower high temps.
So right now this looks great through 29 August.
The flooding is real and the dirt farm roads are the real issue. the state and city roads are or will be fine. But the real back roads are sketchy
Thank you, Jeff! Really have appreciated all your hard work here as I’ve been researching my trip. I’ll be there Oct 1-8 mostly White Mountains and points north/northwest. When you say ‘northern’ areas – can you specify how you delineate north/central/south? Would the White Mountains be considered in the North? Thanks!
From Pittsburg (Waay up north to the Kancamagus hwy, you can consider that Northern New Hampshire.
South of the Kanc, the Lakes region is central if we are only talking NH. But Central can also include Massachusetts. Where southern would be southern Mass, CT and RI… It really depends on “when” you are talking as well. And like everything else everyone has their own opinion… 🙂
Wow, Jeff, what a cool narrative. Thank you for sharing your knowledge research and experience. It is likely your personal experience with the area that counts the most.
Thanks Bill… I have been doing it for a while
Thank you Jeff for your insightful knowledge!I eagerly read your reports and hope as we all do to soak in the short season of Autumn to last the other 49 weeks of the year…
Jeff, thank you so much for all your insights. My wife and I took a week long bus tour in late September of 2013 and leaves were mostly green or yellow. This year we are driving out from the St Louis area and will be driving around Vermont and New Hampshire between 17-19 October. We are doing a week long cruise out of Boston up to Canada and back on 20 October. We are hoping to see great color this trip! I will be following your fall foliage updates, thank you so much again for all the information!
You say 17-19 in VT and NH and then a cruise which returns on the 20th? (not the 25th?)
You “should” see good color…
Thanks Jeff,
Our cruise from Boston starts on 20 Oct to Nova Scotia/Maine area and back to Boston on 27 Oct after we spend some time in our car seeing New England fall colors for 3-4 days.
Thanks Jeff,
Our cruise from Boston starts on 20 Oct to Nova Scotia/Maine area and back to Boston on 27 Oct after we spend some time in our car seeing New England fall colors for 3-4 days.
You might miss some of the color in NS but you should arrive back in Boston at the perfect time. Over all I think you will or should see really good colors. This doesn’t take into consideration that we might get a hurricane, the cool temps we are receiving “could” continue into October (I’m not rating this as a high probability) or the world may end on October 12th… All of these things Could happen so my opinion is as likely as any of these other things happening… 🙂
Jeff,
Thank you so much, you provide great insights for those of us outside of New England. I am hoping the fall colors do not pop early this year!
Hey Jeff! We are stuck between these two weeks, in your personal advice, which option do you think will hit the peak throughout our destinations the most? If you think there won’t be much difference, let me know too, as we realize the first option may be less busy than CDW and our lodging options are a bit better, but our main priority is following peak foliage
Oct 4-8th Vermont(Woodstock, Stowe, etc..) and white mountains
Oct 8-11th Acadia
Oct 12-13 Boston, Rhode Island
OR
Oct 11-14th Vermont(Woodstock, Stowe, etc..) and white mountains
Oct 14-17th Acadia
October 18-19th Boston, Rhode Island
Thanks and I appreciate your thoughts!
I’ve been following along with your predictions for two years in anticipation of our upcoming trip. Thank you, Jeff! We are scheduled to explore Vermont October6-9. Staying in Montpelier. Do you think we’ll see some color? Favorite drives in that area for leaf peeping? Thanks!!
I think you will see good color (historically speaking) and for recommendations try this link and check the articles for Vermont. https://jeff-foliage.com/locations-state/
Also pick up a NH/VT Gazetteer in my Amazon store (If you haven’t already) https://amzn.to/3Mzo1fb [affiliate link)
Hi Jeff,
Thanks for the forecasts! My wife and I are visiting Acadia for an anniversary trip from October 3-8. We’re hoping for good colors 🤞. We also have a few “free” days to drive and explore ME. Where’s the best area for Fall colors then?? And a good ME experience too :).
Hi Marko, Those dates may be a little early for Acadia but it will be pretty. The coast historically turns around the 15th to the 20th but this year is also very unusual since we are seeing more early turning trees so maybe you will be there at the perfect time… Good luck
Jeff,
Thank You for all of your hard work and dedication to all things “Fall Foliage” New England. Big fan of your insight and knowledge of geography of the area! Was out in Vermont for CDW weekend in Oct 2022 and had a fantastic time with my Wife and adult children. Wife and two Daughters are teachers so it’s always a NICE 3 day long weekend.
What are you hearing out there regarding the EEE virus? Obviously concerning!
I have another CDW weekend planned for this year. Flying into Manchester and hanging around central to southern New Hampshire ( Lakes Region/ Monandnock/ Kanc.) However, I think because of the EEE virus this trip will be less ” forest bathing” and more small town visits, to reduce the threat of EEE virus. Just my Wife and I this time.
I haven’t looked into EEE, but I would plan on using bug spray if out of doors for extended periods of time especially after sunset…
……. when is average 1st killing frost (mosquito killing too) for Southern New Hampshire. I’m sure elevation plays a key too. Global warming not helping the cause either.
historically it happens at some point in October depending on where… On top of Mount washington, it all ready happened… Down in Atkinson NH it might happen around Halloween… And not I can’t redict it. Right not we are not forecasted to have any 30s before the 22nd of September… After that what can I say…
Hi Jeff!
My wife and I will be having our wedding in the St. Johnsbury area from weekend of the 5th of October! We see that the cold chill that came through the area last week has started changing some of the leave colors in Vermont and New Hampshire. But now the temperatures have warmed up again before they will start cooling off this next weekend. Do you think this short warm stretch will slow down the color progression or has last week already gotten the ball rolling? Worried since what we are seeing might point to an early season and the St. Johnsbury/ White Mountains could end up past peak by then. Would love to get your thoughts.
We drove through St J. on Saturday and it was still very green in that area. I think you should be fine with the 5th of Oct…
If you haven’t already pick up a gazetteer in my amazon store. (click the link)
Thanks Jeff!
Looks like I accidently posted my question twice. So feel free to remove the one after this.
Thanks again!
Hi Jeff.
We are having our wedding in the St. Johnsbury area weekend of the 5th of October. We see that the cool spell that came through last week has started the color changing process for Vermont and New Hampshire, but now there’s a short warm spell in the area before it cools off again this weekend. Will this warm spell slow down the color change or has last week already gotten the ball rolling? We are concerned because now indications are pointing more towards a slightly early season and the colors might end up being past peak for the St. Jouhnsbury area / White Mountain by the time of our wedding.
Would love to hear your thoughts!