This was a fall forecast for 2019, but the information was so good that it pretty much applies to any year. So I’m making this a part of my fall foliage primer series (The first one can be found here and the rest are TBD)

I write several forecasts before September rolls around. All of the factors you see below play a part in what I guess will happen.

Fall Foliage Factors to Consider

The forces at play that affect the development of the Fall Colors:

• Amount of daylight
• Daytime temps
• Nighttime temps
• Amount of rainfall
• Slow-burn potential

The amount of daylight is controlled by the rotation of the earth, nothing that I can see changing too much in that arena, at least I hope not.

Temperatures (day/night) and again we have no control over this, except to control greenhouse gasses. These two factors are causing our fall colors the most trouble. So let’s switch over to electric cars, get rid of cattle/cows (big methane producers) and wait… did I just say get rid of cattle… No steak or burgers, boy, that will be a hard sell. 🙂

Slow-burn Potential

The biggest effect the warming temps have on the fall foliage colors is to slow the change. In 2018, I called for and we received a “slow burn”. This “Slow-burn potential” means the fall colors were slow to start (delayed start) and then we had a slow development of the colors as well.
The good news:
This can work in our favor if we have sunny days and light rain AND we have no big wind storms. The caveat is that we need a decent amount of rainfall from spring through early fall which gives us “happy leaves”. Happy leaves mean they have a strong attachment to the tree and can take more wind and rain. If you have been doing this for a while you will know that October in New England can be a turbulent period for wind and rain.

But it can happen…

In 2018, we had no big wind storms up till the 16th of Oct. In fact, the 14th had great snowliage up in the White Mountains. On the 15th of October, I took CBS up to Tamworth, Conway, and over to Maine on Route 113 where they saw great Peak color at the Basin.

The evening of 15th gave us winds that gusted 40 to 50+ MPH winds. Guess what happened to that peak color? Yup! Much of it on the ground or in the pond… The winds the next morning were still enough to almost knock my camera and tripod over. It’s also much brighter and the remaining color is so different from 12 hours earlier.

So while a slow burn can work for us, it just takes a single rain/wind event to reset the fall colors to green and we have to wait a week or more for the colors to develop again. The bad news is that this appears to be the new norm for us.

Rainfall Affecting Our Fall Foliage Colors

Each state in New England may be small in comparison to places like Texas, let’s face it as the crow flies its only 550 miles from the Maine/Canadian border down the Stanford CT. If that was a straight road you could easily drive that in a day.

Due to the terrain of Mountains and flatlands, rain doesn’t fall equally across all of New England. In a previous year, North Western Vermont was in various stages of drought while the rest of Vermont and New Hampshire received more on average, closer to what they normally receive.

You may ask, how did this affect us?

1st off you may wonder how too much rain or too little rain can affect the fall colors. Too much rain either in spring, summer or fall is bad for the trees because there are several fungi that will flourish in a moist environment. You may have heard of Anthracnose or Tar Spot. They are the Maple tree’s nemesis.

These are two that are always on the trees, year-round. They don’t cause the tree’s problems until we have too much rain or even a long, cool, moist, and cloudy period. I’m not a biologist but I start to worry when we have those conditions for longer than a week straight. These fungi always show in some degree every year but how much trouble will they cause, is a big question.

The optimal year in rainfall would be…

Generally, we can hope for a balance from spring through 1 September. Spring/Summer days are warm and sunny with brief periods of rain to keep the ground moist and the trees are happy. Happy trees mean the leaves resist fungus and insects. Happy trees also hold onto leaves longer during the New England fall foliage season.

What to look for in your current year for Fall Foliage…

I found the information in this foliage forecast for 2019 to be so good that I’m making it a regular article that you should read for almost any year and will help you understand the processes of climate, sun, rain, and their effects on the fall colors.

What we really hope for is a balance between all the different factors. Its this simple balance that will give us long lasting fall colors that are bright and covering huge tracts of New England all at the same time. (Simple right?)

My Weekly Fall Foliage Projections for Sept-Nov

These generally apply to most recent years. You do need to be flexible just in case we have an abnormal year and it’s significantly early or late (It can happen)…

28 Sept – 5 Oct, I would look at Greenville Maine North to Canada. In New Hampshire the fall colors will be North of Routes 2/302 to the Canadian border. In Vermont, the NEK (North East Kingdom)

3 Oct – 13 Oct, I would be in the White Mountains of New Hampshire and points North. Central Maine up through Rangeley Maine. In Vermont, anywhere in the Green Mountains and central VT and points North. Massachusetts will have generally nice color and I would be looking in the Berkshires, around the Quabbin Reservoir, and along Route 2, west of Erving MA.

12 Oct – 25 Oct, IF we get continued progression which didn’t happen in 2018 You will be looking at Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine and into Massachusetts. In 2018 it got bottled up in the Central regions and didn’t progress causing the fall colors to still be around in southern NH at Halloween.

20 Oct – 5 Nov, I believe you will be finding the New England fall Foliage all through Massachusetts into Connecticut and Rhode Island. You will/should find peak or really good fall foliage colors in Boston along the Charles River and at the Arnold Arboretum/Boston Common/Blue Hills. The fall colors will hang on and still be showing up in surprising places through the first half of November. Also, Rhode Island and Connecticut should be close to peak at this time

BUT! This forecast can not take into account the “weather” we actually get. A storm coming through will take down the fall colors no matter what I say. (Mother Nature has it out for me, and she doesn’t want me to get cocky). So plan for a really good chance of seeing peak fall colors but have a backup plan as well.

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Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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