Good Morning my foliage friends, it is warming up in New England and while spring didn’t arrive as early as a certain furry creature in Pennsylvania predicted, it hasn’t been a solid snow-filled winter since February either. So many factors play a part in what the colors look like in October that accuracy is at best, haphazard at this point.

Let’s look at the following:

• Daylight
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Insects
• Storms

As always, three main components contribute to the changing of the fall colors. First is the amount of daylight, which is the main driver for the trees to shut down photosynthesis and allow the colors to shine. There is no forecasting to worry about with this. The days will get shorter no matter what I say and if they aren’t… In that case, we as a species have much more to worry about.

Now, the second and third, are Temperature and precipitation. These are the wild cards that cause you and me headaches trying to figure out when the fall colors will appear and how long they will stay on the trees. If the temps are moderate during the summer and peak temps in the 90s happen in July/August and then the temps start to drop in the first week of September THEN I’m very hopeful for great colors from late September into October.

Mix into this a soggy, dry, or balanced amount of rainfall, then the prognosis for October fall colors can be outstanding, or Blah. I can not tell you what we will get this far out and no weatherman would put their reputation on the line. (I have no reputation so that’s not a factor). I am more focused on what we are “actually” getting in the way of weather versus what we will be getting in 2 to 3 months. If I was that good of a fortune teller, I would have won the lottery several times over.

Temps heading into the Summer and into Fall

If you haven’t picked up your Gazetteer map books or other travel books, then go to my Amazon store and get your planning hat on!

First up is the second contributing factor. The temps as we have seen for the past 10-15 years have been (constantly forecast) as “slightly above” and we have varying degrees of slightly above temps from May 2024 through next January 2025. As you will see in the charts below, The next eight months are expected to be slightly above temperature-wise. Only November (in white for equal chances of higher or lower temps) is the only month expected to be average. One thing to Keep in mind is that in 2020 and 2022, we had OUTstanding fall colors. So this above-average expectation for the temps has to be balanced with what we actually get.

Even if the temps are a little above, (I’m not talking 80s-90s daytime and 50s-60s nighttime) If we have sunny daytime temps at 75 versus 71 and nighttime lows at 38 versus 33 then I won’t be worried too much and we will see the fall colors arrive on time if not a little early. So from late August into September, I’m paying close attention to the daily hI and low temps. Remember… cloudy days don’t help produce the bright colors we love seeing during our Foliage season.

Rainfall from summer to Fall and impacts

Rainfall is all about balance and so far you can see in the graphics below that the current drought monitor has no significant drought in New England and the expected rainfall is just a little above average. Southern New England is showing better chances for more rain and we’ll have to see how this plays out.

We didn’t have heavy snowfall this past winter with a deep snowpack in the mountains. But New England has had more than its average precipitation since January between snow and rain. Unless the approaching summer is parched I don’t see us going into a drought. We’ll have to see what June – August actually brings to us for rain/sun.

Insect Damage from last year impacting this season

It seems that as of this spring, the population of the spongy moth has fallen off to insignificant levels for this year. This doesn’t mean you won’t see any damage due to insects but there are no infestations expected at this time. There are no alerts at this time outside of forest officials watching to see if any of the other populations of insects develop into a challenge.

Storms Damaging the Trees

Last July’s torrential rainfall that flooded the Connecticut River Valley from Vermont down into the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, and into Connecticut caused widespread damage. There will be localized forest damage in and around rivers that were flooded. But overall, I’m optimistic at this point.

What Jeff “Thinks” will happen

I think a slow-burn fall foliage season will be the order of the day.

The chances of an early fall are slim at this point. But we still have four months of summer to get through and that will be critical for what the fall colors WILL do. We’re probably going to be back in a La Nina this fall and winter and that may make the possibility of hurricanes making landfall greater than we want to see. Temps will be a little warmer than average which probably sounds like a broken record because every year, I’ve been saying the same thing. The question is HOW MUCH above average?

This next week (3rd week of May) We are looking at 3 days in the 80s. This could make for a very warm summer and if it continues… Well, I did not ask Mother Nature for it to be this hot.

I’m not currently expecting a drought but right now it depends a lot on how “balanced” the rainy periods are with the drying periods. We’re going to just have to watch what happens…

So overall I’m very comfortable with the way things are looking at the moment so make your plans for great color starting to show around the 1st of October with some areas like Northwestern Maine (Stratton and Eustis) showing decent/good color around 25-27 Sept.

Jeff’s Gut says…

The Northern White Mountains of New Hampshire should see the beginnings of good color to peak around 3-5 October. The Kanc 5-10 Oct, Conway 7-12 Oct.

The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will start to see good color around 1-3 October but its mostly more northern places like Montgomery, Jay, Newport, and maybe Island Pond getting earlier colors. As we move through the first week of October the colors will build but the peak will be slow to show itself.

Northwestern Maine has in the past few years, been showing decent to good color the last week of September and I believe that may continue. So if you must be early to New England, then try Stratton or Eustis in Western Maine. Aso Millinocket Maine which is south of Katahdin usually shows color around the 25th of September as well.

These are the starting areas in northern New England and from here the colors will begin to flow south during the Month of October. By the 15th of October, the colors are starting to get good in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island BUT!!! It really depends on the temps. Last year the nightly low temps in southern New England rarely got below 45 at night so the colors were really sloooow.

All in all, I’m thinking that this fall will be much better than 2023 BUT!!! Time will tell.

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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