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February 2024, New England Fall Forecast

New England Fall Foliage Posted on by

Well, my foliage friends, it’s February, so it’s time for my New England Fall Foliage Forecast, looking forward to October, and guess what we might see. If you want my forecasts and fall foliage reports sent to your email automatically, enter your email below and you can stay up on what is going on in New England regarding fall foliage.

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The fall foliage season of 2023 is behind us, will this season be any better?

I sure hope so! I think 2023 will be one of the worst in the books… Till the next one of course. In my opinion 2005, 2011,2017, and finally 2023 seem to be really bad years. Some people tell me that they felt 2007 or 2012 were oh so bad. But these are the years In MY opinion that stand out for one reason or another. But let’s review the facts as they stand right now in February.

A quiet back road stroll through the Vermont fall colors
A quiet back road stroll through the Vermont fall colors view in my gallery where you can get free shipping.

This past fall (2023)


My fall foliage forecast went “pretty well” Up until July when the rains started and continued into November. I said it should be a slow burn and it was During the spring/summer, we saw average rainfall across New England till July and well that horse has been beaten to death. The temps started dropping in late September but there just wasn’t a continued drop. They would rise and fall instead of the needed drop of the temps into the mid to low 30s at night and bright sunny days in the 50s to low 70s.

OK, Will conditions from 2023 affect the fall colors for 2024?

It’s hard to say but 2023 was a Mast year for oaks, maples, and even white pines. So we should not see that this year so that is one less stress that the trees in New England will have to deal with. I prefer to look forward to what we can see in the near term. Things like the accumulated snowpack, winter into spring temps, and rainfall will affect the trees in the current year. but the stress of last year’s rainfall could be a holdover to this year but there is no way to measure it till the fall foliage season is over.

Down and Dirty Fall Foliage Forecast Elements for 2024

These are the things I am looking at for my fall foliage forecast… Going forward I keep an eye on rainfall/drought, temperatures, and to a smaller degree, the insect populations.

Generally as of the end of February, we have seen warmer than average temps across New England. Snowfall has been below normal. In northern Vermont, many farms started boiling map sap early but as of this week that has been shut down because the temps are in the low 30s, and looking forward should stay pretty frigid till March. March is coming in like a lion per the old folklore and we will have to see if it goes out like a lamb…

In like a Lion and out like a Lamb”

Did you Catch the Eclipse?

The Solar Eclipse is coming

I hope it calms down on the way out of March and into April. April 8th is the Solar Eclipse and I’m heading the wrong way and chancing the clear skies. Lisa and I headed to Sheldon Vermont against the odds. This link shows how I did in photographing the solar eclipse.

This trip to Vermont is not a safe plan and I “should” head to the southern US where they have a greater chance of seeing clear skies. I wrote a series of articles on what I learned about shooting a solar eclipse. These articles are on my WordPress blog.

Read this article on lessons learned for the 8 April total solar eclipse…

As I was saying, in the future I look at…

We will have to take whatever Mother Nature throws at us. That is right everything you see here is guesswork on my part. I have no degree in meteorology or a Ph.D. I am an observer of the weather in New England and after more than 20+ years I like to think I have a clue. So what am I looking at?

  • NOAA Climate Prediction
  • Old Farmers Almanac
  • Other sources from weather professionals

The climate prediction folks at NOAA say the El Niño that we went into last spring is losing its grip on us an we should be moving into an ENSO neutral by late spring or summer. Whether that holds us through the fall or it changes into La Niña is up in the air at the moment. But back to a La Niña is favored for this coming fall.

Drought/Rainfall

Right now (late February 2024), there is no evidence of drought in New England. and if we get decent snow/rain through spring and “average” rain through summer, the trees will be happy. Happy trees mean the leaves stay on the trees during wind/rain events. It also means that during the dreaded “slow burn” fall the leaves will stay on the trees longer giving us a more pleasing foliage season

a misty autumn morning over barnard Vermont
The sun’s warm light paints everything around Silver Lake in a warm orange glow. The fog begins to burn off quickly and by the time I drove down to the Barnard General Store for coffee which is under the mist in this image, it had burned off. The fog rarely sticks around once the sun begins to rise over the hills.

As seen in the image above, the trees put on a good (if not a great) show in 2021. A slow burn year but as this image shows the trees at dawn over Barnard Vermont were as close to the peak as you can get. I did notice that some trees are bare but for the most part, they are fully leafed on 12 Oct. The only green trees are pine trees.

This is my artwork example of what a slow burn means

peak foliage graph in a slow-burn year chart

. Read what I mean about a Slow-Burn here.

Temperature for Fall 2023

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So far this winter (2022-2023) it has been warmer than many winters and we have gotten some decent snow in southern New England so that should be good down there. Up north the snow has been intermittent but I would say average for northern New England where they have had much more than southern New England.

As we go into spring I don’t expect to see an early leaf out. I know Paunxatawny Phil said an early spring but I think he was under the weather back on the 2nd of Feb and he was confused… But the daylight savings doesn’t change for 21 more days (dawn arrived at 6:35 this AM) and the first day of spring is March 19th, only 10 days later.

Putting it all Together

Ok, please remember that is very early BUT, I think we are going to see a slow burn as stated above but if Mother Nature is a bit gentler to us than she was last year, we could see some outstanding colors.

I think the late September 2024 fall colors will be spotty in Northern New England with good color (not peak) being found in Northern Vermont (limited to higher elevations), Northern New Hampshire (North of Route 26), and North of Rangeley Maine to the Canadian border.

Better fall colors will be found by 1 Oct (Peak in minimal spots) in the above-listed locations and early color will show in the NEK (Northeast Kingdom and Green Mtns), Northern White Mountains (North of the Kanc, Route 112), and better colors from a line drawn from Rangeley, Monson, and Millinocket, North. There should be really good color around Eustis and Stratford Maine because it just seems to show up early there. Why you ask? I think it has to do with the layout of the mountains and the way the Canadian air flows into this area.

Columbus Day weekend “should” be showing us peak colors across the central areas of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Early colors will arrive in southern New England with spotty to good colors in Connecticut and Rhode Island. Central Massachusetts will be spotty and the Berkshires “MAY” be at peak due to elevation but they are Always hard to call.

Before you go any further, check my article on learning how to search for the perfect fall colors. Or this one on finding peak fall colors.

After Columbus Day Weekend (CDW)

I expect and “HOPE” to see peak extend past CDW up north as peak moves south into southern New England. If we see average rainfall and less insect damage, the peak fall colors may stay with us in the more northern areas through the third week of October and down into Massachusetts through Halloween. OK, OK, I’m overly optimistic here but a leaf peeper can hope can’t he?

More Current Fall Foliage Forecasts/Reports listed

Here you will find all the forecasts that I make this year and the reports as well. OR you can bookmark my forecasts and reports page and they will be listed there as well.

Current Foliage Forecasts for 2024

Current Foliage Reports for 2024
TBD until later in August. If you want the up-to-date reports as they come out, go back to the top and sign up for my blog articles to be sent to you as they come out.

“I have just finished my preliminary 2024 Fall Foliage Forecast. However, it is still subject to change as it is very early and we need to wait and see the actual weather that New England receives over the next few months.”

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

Visit my Amazon affiliate store for items that Lisa and I have curated for you. These items are either New England-made or things we think will make your fall foliage trip more successful.

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Comments

February 2024, New England Fall Forecast — 24 Comments

  1. We would like to come out this year from California. We want it to be worth our time because we have to PAY for everything, we have no miles, no credits, no freebies, to have this experience. (Flights/travel, Pet sitter, Temp in-home Elder Care for 90+ year old in-laws, Car Rental, Hotel, Food, Maple Ice Creams, Souvenirs, etc.) And we are saving now BUT want to make sure this endeavor is/will really be, worth it. Look forward to your guidance and everything you share more than you know! Thank you!

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    • Well I hate to say it but there are no guarantees out there. You can hit the hotel.com links on my pages and look for options for the cancellation allowances. Also look further away from the very touristy areas where the prices are higher… I have stayed in Stowe but I had to wait till 9PM before finding better prices. I was winging it on a weekday night…

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  2. My family and I will be doing a NE Fall Foliage road trip this year. We would likely fly into Boston and then head north up the coast to Maine, cross ME, NH, VT, back down through MA to Boston. We have the option of coming Sept 27-Oct 6 OR Oct 18-27. Which week would you recommend or is most likely to have colors? Traveling with a 7 and 4 year old… any other tips, tricks, opinions, or recommends you can share is greatly appreciated. Thank you!

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  3. Can you supply the into to contact the tour guide I believe you recommended for fall foliage tours by the name of April?
    Thank you.
    Karol

    Reply ↓

  4. Hi Jeff, I’m gathering info for a 2025 New England wedding the first or second week of November (ideally a price reduction as it becomes “off season”). I’m open to anywhere in New England. Do you think Western Mass, Connecticut, and Rhode Island would still have nice foliage? I still love the idea of Vermont or New Hampshire but I’m concerned about how many leaves will have fallen by that point. Curious to know your thoughts! Thanks!

    Reply ↓

    • The first week of November is probably your best bet. I have found good color along the coast and you should find some color in South Central Massachusetts to CT and RI. It’s a little far out for my crystal ball and when I asked it just now what the outlook for 1 Nov 2025 was, we to put it bluntly, it asked if I was crazy?… 🙂

      But in general Areas around larger bodies of water or large rivers will turn a bit later than their counterparts due to the thermodynamics. (The water keeps the temps around it a few degrees warmer)
      But you are at the mercy of the weather which is capricious at best. I would look for a venue that can show you photos from the past 10 years of the fall colors on their property holding color till mid Nov (pics like this should be rare) but Venues will have cultivated trees and shrubs that may hold their color longer versus natural woods that may be bare at the same time…

      Sorry that is my best guess at this point

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  5. Jeff, we are planning to travel the east coast from top to bottom this fall and would like to travel as the foliage travels. We would appreciate your input on where and when to begin. Things are always dependent on weather changes, but your best estimate will get us started. Thanks.

    Reply ↓

    • Start North and if you bring your passport you could cross into Canada and start in Sept up there but by 1 October the colors will start changing on this side of the border. Near the ocean the colors turn later. Western Maine (Eustis) is a good early place to visit and northern NH (above the White Mountains and then the Northeast Kingdom. Every 3 or so days you’ll be able to move a bit further south.
      Keep reading my articles for more info…

      Reply ↓

  7. Hi Jeff,

    Thanks for all of your great information. We are planning a NE fall foliage trip and trying to decide which date range (October 3-19 vs. Oct 10-26) starting in VT to Kacamagus NH/ White MT, over to Acadia and down to Salem & Boston. Most maps say to start earlier in October for best colors, but unsure if another slow burn year pushes those dates further out.

    Reply ↓

    • I normally go with the earlier dates because I would rather go with early color (coming into the fall color) rather than trailing color as its falling off the trees. Last year was NOT a stellar one and a slow-burn but yet on 1 Oct 2023 in Crawford Notch I found “pretty good color. If you think you would want to find this. then earlier is best.
      Crawford Notch used in comment-keep

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  8. Hi Jeff. I’m planning a visit to Burlington VT (mostly to visit my son who is at UVM) but also to see the fall colors! I have a choice of Oct 1-4, 2024, or the following week Oct 7-11? Thoughts?

    Reply ↓

    • 7-11 would be my choice. We have no idea what the weather will be but near the lake the colors come later and you are somewhat centrally located so a short drive to Stowe and Smuggler’s Notch is not tough and if the colors are further south, Woodstock VT would also look very nice…

      Reply ↓

  9. Thank you— Wondering about Connecticut – New York Border below the Berkshires near Sharon and Millerton area for Columbus Day weekend. What’s your thought?

    Reply ↓

  10. Is there going to be a Fall Foliage Festival this year in the towns of Walden, Cabot, Plainfield, Peacham, Barnet and Groton? If so, what would be the dates. We are in Arizona and are thinking of coming to the Northeast Kingdom this year to enjoy the leaves and the local activities.

    Reply ↓

  11. Hi there Jeff! My wife and I, along with our three daughters, are traveling from IN to VT for the first time this fall. We are super excited to be visiting Stowe on October 4-5 and Woodstock from October 6-7. With that being said, do you think we are in for some good fall colors? We have heard that it is magical this time of year and we are keeping our fingers crossed that you will have a good forecast for us.🤞🏻Thank you for keeping us updated…I enjoy reading your posts.👍🏻

    Reply ↓

  12. Hi Jeff. I will be in Jackson NH Oct 5 and Stowe Oct 6 and 7. Do you think the colors will be changing later in October this year? It seems like I am seeing some things that are saying that. I was thinking about switching my trip around so I either arrive a week later (October 13, 14, 15) or I change some dates around on my current trip and am in Stowe Oct 8 and 9 and Jackson Oct 10. What would you do? What do you suggest. I know if it difficult to predict.

    Reply ↓

    • To be honest, my best picture in Jackson was on 16 Oct seen in the picture below. Jackson and N. Conway turn around 7 Oct but sometimes get better closer to the 15th. This due to their location because south of those places the Kancamagus (Route 112) Which was taken on Sept 30. All along the Kanc (higher elevation I have found wonderful fall color in previous years from 30 Sept to 8 October. This is my historical perspective of traveling this road for over 20 years.

      Jackson covered bridge at peak color
      A view up the Pemigewasset River in fall colors

      You can move to 13 Oct and you will find great colors but you may miss the earlier colors that will show up between 1-13 October north of the White Mountains. If you arrive you are possibly missing out on some color in certain places but you will find wonderful colors in others. There are a lot of days between now (35 to be exact) before peak fall colors will be showing up in the mountains… I know this doesn’t Make things easier for you but know this. No matter what dates you pick, It WILL be good somewhere in New England on those dates…

      Reply ↓

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