Well, today is 2 March and there are…
7 Days till Daylight Savings
18 Days till the 1st day of Spring
110 days till the first day of summer
And best yet 204 Days till the first day of Fall…!

Conditions heading into Spring

I have been saying for years that having a balanced mixture of snow/rain/sunlight/temps is required to create what “I think” will result in a good outcome in the fall. What follows is my best guess, so take it with a grain or two of salt…

Ok, for the foliage forecast, this is the bad news to start with,

Drought

Our current status as of 2 March is what bothers me. We have had below average temps for Dec-Feb but that has not translated into snow and a deep snowpack. Yes, we have gotten snow but as of 1 March, 98% of New England is showing some level of Drought. Somewhere from Abnormally dry to Severe Drought. My info comes from NOAA.

In most years, I like to see New England get a nice constant snowfall creating a snowpack that will fill reservoirs and replenish the water table. So if we have a dry summer, we have reserves. As of right now, we should get some rain over the next few weeks according to NOAA, but the moist ground will dry fast if we don’t get weekly soakings.

*Note* Only NOAA provides this type of information and I want you to remember that they are the only ones who provide it…

According to NOAA, this spring is showing a slight chance of staying moist in a few parts of western New England but going into the summer and fall, NOAA says it could go either way with a long dry spell OR a more rainy summer, It’s just too early to call it right now.

Temps

This has not changed in the last 10-15 years and there is an above average chance for warmer than average temperatures through December. Nothing new there. As always it will depend on if and when the temperatures start to drop in August (GOOD) or Sept (NOT AS GOOD).

Insect damage

We didn’t have that much damage from insects in 2024 so I’m hoping that this will hold true through this autumn as well… Time will tell as it does with the rest of these things…

Hurricane season in 2025

Right now we are in the La Niña phase and if this was Aug-Nov, that would mean greater chances for stronger Hurricane activity off the Eastern seacoast. El Niño tends to reduce the impact of hurricanes and that in and of itself is a good thing.

The current La Niña is expected to weaken by April but not switch over entirely to El Niño which means it “MAY” stay ENSO Neutral (not going to define ENSO) This “Neutral” time means (to me) that hurricanes will be there but I don’t think it will be more than a few that we “have to worry about” on the east coast… So for now… we should be ok…

Here are a couple of articles that I find useful “a fall foliage primer for finding autumn colors in New England. ALSO, you should read my Art of Getting Lost.

Jeff’s Thoughts On The Upcoming Season

I feel the last two years have been less than stellar. 2024 was NOT horrible but due to the massive drought across much of New England, we didn’t get the colors where we expected to find them. The drone image above at the top of the article was made on 14 October nearing sunset in Townsend Massachusetts and this image below was made on that morning of the 14th of October 2024 in Sudbury Massachusetts (Wayside Grist Mill).

I won’t say I didn’t make ANY good shots in New Hampshire or Vermont but my number of “Successful” shots was well below what I feel my average should be in NH, VT, and ME. The number of Drone images went up significantly (especially on the 14th of October). My most memorable shots were found in Massachusetts (Very unusual)

Also, I have looked for the Old Farmer’s Almanac and they say a moist spring so YAAA if that happens or is it? I’ll have to go buy a copy to see what they say for Autumn. The Severe Weather Europe website says in mid-March we will see a major disruption of the polar vortex bringing a bunch of Cold air down into the Central or maybe northeastern US and depending on the actual flow could bring moist warm air up into New England. But it’s too early to tell as that is 10-15 days away…

For 2025, I think storms, insects, and even the temperature will all be within norms for this fall (fingers crossed). My BIG worry is going to be the amount of drought that we might sustain. Drought causes lesser color to arrive sooner due to stress and if 2025 is like 2024, it might not be very bright. Our trees can handle a light drought as that can intensify the colors but there is no way to determine what is light or severe for any given tree.

Like I said before I won’t know what we will get UNTIL we get it. This means I will be looking for reports at NOAA for current drought levels across New England. Even if it’s a rainy spring and that does remedy the drought issue, that will lead to other issues with fungus affecting the leaves…

No matter what happens, each event affects others throughout the year. When we get through with August, then I would hope to have a good idea but for now, you have something to watch in New England… Is the rain staying on the plain in Maine? Or did it just not happen… I wish I could give you a brighter outlook but for the moment I think we can focus on this single event to gauge the quality of the fall…

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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