Here is the New England fall foliage update as of 8 May 2023… Well MAY Day has passed into the rearview mirror and people are looking forward to warming temps. Here in Massachusetts, the temps are still hovering in the 50s/60s but it is soon to change to the 70s and above.

There is a possibility that the upcoming El Niño could impact our weather this autumn. However, the extent of its impact and when it will occur is uncertain. As ocean temperatures continue to rise, predicting the amount and timing of potential precipitation is challenging. This is a common challenge when it comes to forecasting the fall colors and the factors that impact them.

Critical Areas to Watch

Temperature

El Niño is going to bring a warming trend with it and I’m going to watch the difference between the La Niña that has been hanging around since 2019 and this switch to El Niño. In my mind, the temps have been above average for quite a while during the past autumns. If this means, EVEN warmer temps then this is really going to slow the progress of the fall colors. This could move the development of the fall colors from the last two weeks of September to MAYBE just the last week of Sept and into the first week of October.

We all want to pretend that climate change isn’t happening but for leaf peepers, you need to face facts that in the past 30-50 yrs we have witnessed directly that the fall colors rarely show as much in September and mostly just October and into November. But where Rhode Island and Connecticut used to have every bit as vibrant fall colors as Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, now the temps in southern New England are providing less color than in the past. Keep this in mind if you feel like shouting down the scientists who say that Climate change is happening.

Will ALL this happen? Ask me in November… But I think we WILL see a slowdown if the temps rise more than in the past couple of years. (Hint slowdown means later arrival or slow to develop fall colors) Here is what a Slow-Burn is…

Rainfall

The other side of the pie chart is rainfall. El Niño is “supposed to make it rainier but through this summer the Climate Prediction folks at NOAA are saying (so far) average rainfall (May – August).

So I’m keeping an eye on the drought in New England and while it looks ok across much of Northern New England, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts are abnormally dry. I’m also seeing a little moderate drought in coastal Rhode Island.

What I want to see is weekly rain so that by the time October gets here the trees are “happy” This will take a balance, neither too much nor too little rain this summer. We’ll see what Mother Nature actually gives us.

As a comparison, Vermont Forest Health is reporting that April 2022 showed abnormally dry through the Northeast Kingdom. As of April 2023, there is no drought being reported. So each year will be revealed as we go through it.

The reason I want a balance or in my view “Happy Trees”, is if we have trees that are not overly stressed from heat and drought, they may hold on to their leaves longer. So my reasoning is if it takes longer for the fall colors to develop then we can still have wonderful colors on the trees past the normal time the colors would show up.

Also, the wind and rain events that rob us of our pretty leaves do less damage if the leaves have a strong bond to the branches. If we get heat and drought, then the leaves will drop long before they fully turn or they turn one day and drop the next.

Insect Damage

Leaf-out is on schedule and while I have not heard about any sightings as of yet of the Spongey Moth or other maple tree-loving critters, it won’t be long. Last year up in Northcentral Vermont, the critters took a big bite out of the trees along large tracts of trees, and while the trees come back and “re-leaf” it’s never as pretty as it would have been before the moths took fed their gullets. in Connecticut, I saw a lot of bare trees last October so the trees did not fare well in the areas around Kent CT.

Eastern tent caterpillar (ETC, Malacosoma americanum) larvae were observed feeding on emerging apple (Malus spp.) leaves in Rutland County Vermont. As well as Emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) was detected for the first time in the towns of Putney and Halifax this month. Read more about the EAB here on VT invasives.

What are we likely to see this fall?

Well, I expect that we will see once again a slightly late arrival of the fall colors with 1-5 October looking nice across Northern New England and Peak should follow 5-10 October across much of these areas. It will then move south of the Columbus Day Weekend into mid-October. How quickly it spreads is the question. IF… IF we have low drought we may see an extended leaf-peeping season.

As of right now, I’m staying positive as to my outlook on the 2023 fall foliage season. It all depends on what we get this summer into the fall for “real” weather.

The big factors are the weather, insects, and don’t forget hurricanes (but they could be diminished due to El Niño but time will tell.

One thing I want you to remember is the following…

It’s a Dimmer Switch and not a Light Switch that controls ALL the Fall Colors

Well, as we close out this look at the Massachusetts fall colors, we have to remember one thing. The fall colors don’t just turn on one day and off the next day and then we’re done. I feel that most people think the fall colors work off a light switch. You flick the switch and they are ON at full peak fall colors…

You have to think of them, more as a dimmer switch that you start at the lowest level and each day you turn it ever so slightly until it’s full on. Then each day you start to turn it back down until you hear it click and that is the signal for the leaf to fall to the ground.

Here is the funny thing, EVERY single tree, bush, and blade of grass has its own dimmer switch. All of these dimmer switches are on their own schedule and they start turning on because of the shortening of the days, some start turning on because of disease, and some turn on because of some other factor. This is why you never see the fall colors perfectly throughout an area where you are standing. These dimmer switches are controlled by the length of our days, rain, temperature, disease, and myriad other factors.

The Massachusetts dimmer switches will turn on and off at their own schedules and usually, they are later than up in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. They are also a bit before Rhode Island and Connecticut, but not always.

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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