Before some folks start screaming at me, that I’m rushing the summer and NOT letting them enjoy it. Well, I need to focus on enjoying the summer just like you do. But I’m still evaluating and planning on where I’m going to concentrate this fall. This is why I will keep an eye on the trends for heat, rainfall, insect/fungus damage, and storms.

So Let’s delve into the data so far and if you can share this article on your social media, yes I’ve joined Facebook’s Threads and you can find me as Threads.net/@Jeff_Foliage But please share my articles if you find them of interest.

Summer Temps are good and into the fall?

Well, summer is here and I’m looking at what the NOAA climate prediction center is forecasting through the summer and into the fall.

As usual and nothing out of the ordinary we should be seeing slightly above average temperatures through November. How this will affect us depends on the other factors seen below.

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New England Rainfall and Drought (Bad News/Good News)

Here is the good news. The drought of the last few years is not as bad as it was in years past. in fact, only Vermont has a small area of moderate drought up near Sheldon Vermont and while much of the rest of Vermont and Connecticut is abnormally dry it’s not an emergency as of yet. (as of 4 July 2023) According to Jonathan Steele, Since the 4th CT has been getting a lot of rain and is due for more over July 10th & 11th.

These two areas are predominantly abnormally dry and that is an improvement from last year where we had areas of extreme drought (knock on wood). The rest of New England is showing little to no drought as of July 4th, 2023. This is one of the indicators that I keep an eye on. because I’m hoping to see it stay “balanced” as far as the rainfall goes. If the trees are happy going into fall they will hold their leaves longer.

Now the bad news. I have been expecting the many different fungi to raise their ugly heads at some point this summer and it wasn’t a matter of IF there would be Anthracnose or Tar Spot (to name just a few) but it was when and how much will be affected. Right now my only report has come from John Burk about the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts and I was really hoping to see a lot of bright fall colors out that way… Well, time will tell as to how bad it will be.

As far as the rest of New England I’m keeping my eyes and ears open/

Updated info on 17 July… Well, Mother Nature is getting downright nasty… she dumped 6-7 inches of rain on central Vermont from 7/11-7/12 and this was almost 2 months of average rainfall. So to say rain is a concern in central Vermont and I will be paying close attention to what develops there in central Vermont. I believe it will be a stress factor for the trees, but will it be BAD for the trees, only time will tell.

Insect damage adds insult to injury

I’m already getting reports from Jim Salge of infestations along Route 93 and 89 in New Hampshire (Spongy Moth or Tent Caterpillars) and defoliation in Bow New Hampshire and to a lesser degree down in the Monadnock region as well.

Now the word Defoliation may sound critical but the trees can sometimes foliate (put on new leaves) before the summer is over. but the damage has been done and the fall colors may be less bright when compared to nearby trees that didn’t suffer defoliation at the same time. I’m watching this as always and if the trees put new leaves on, it will be less of a factor but the fall colors will be faded. but this is better than seeing bare trees… (in my opinion)

Hurricane Season is here and???

Well, our average of named hurricanes is about 13 but the different services are saying they “expect” to see more like 18 name storms. “Normally” El Niño’s influence is to lower the number of storms but this year the Atlantic is showing above-average water temps which aids in the creation and buildup of hurricanes.

As with everything else, this is not a sure thing, a done deal, or a nail in the coffin… Far from it but it does mean we will be on the lookout for Hurricanes making landfall in the Carolinas up through Maine. These are the stuff of nightmares, at least for me…

As of July 2023, what does this mean to you and your plans…

Ok, as I see it we’ll be seeing light fall colors start around the 20th of September. By the 25th we will see generally nice color in the Nothern areas of VT, NH, and ME. I do not think we will see peak fall colors until 3-5 October in the same Northern areas. (last year the Kanc was peak by the 5th of October and I would say that I expect the Columbus Day Weekend (6-9 October) to be at its peak across much of central to Northern New England.

After Columbus Day the Northern areas will be faded and I think we’ll be seeing good or strong colors across The White Mountains but it will be fading fast. through this week (9-15) and I would expect to see Snowliage in the higher elevations. Along with the mountain of Vermont.

Where Jeff is planning to look for this fall…

Everybody wants to know what to do with this information. Well, here are my ideas about the dates.

First, there is nothing we can do about insect damage or poor colors on or off the trees so move your feet and find a new location. As with EVERY year, I will tell you the same thing. NEVER does an entire state look bad? Generally, if you go a few valleys over you will find much better colors.

Always have some plan B’s created that you can fall back on. Rain WILL fall during your trip so have some indoor adventures like museums, farms, wineries, or something new to try. For instance, are you a baker? take route 5 in Vermont up to King Arthur Flour in Norwich Vermont (a pretty little town btw) and get some supplies (and a bite to eat as well)… (always a good plan B)

Late September (25-30 Sept) – I will look at driving routes that incorporate visiting NW Maine (Grafton Notch State Park, Rangeley, Eustis, and no further south than Rumford) and over past Errol into New Hampshire and then into Jay Vermont. (higher elevations might be better)

Early October (1-5 Oct) – I may go back to look at possibly revisiting some of the same Maine areas above. Depending on whether I visited them already or not. So Rangeley, Quill Hill, and north and east of there into Eustis Maine.

In New Hampshire, on these dates (1-5 Oct) the White Mountains should be fully peak (I hope) but a few areas like Conway and Tamworth might not be there quite yet… but the areas of Dixville Notch and Stark New Hampshire, traveling down into Crawford Notch and many areas of the Northern White Mtns should be very nice.

In Vermont, the NEK (Northeast Kingdom) should be looking really good with very bright colors. Stowe and Smuggler’s Notch will be a question mark at this point. Maybe just high color versus Peak but I don’t think anyone will be TOO unhappy.

Mid-October – (5-15 Oct) Ok, I’m looking on the southern edge from Woodstock Vermont, North till you run out of the fall colors, and how far south you see really bright color will be determined by how COOL it gets. If it stays warmer the colors will peter out before you get to the southern border of the state.

In New Hampshire (5-15 Oct), the White Mountains should be between high color/peak to the south to fading color in the north (depending on the date). If we are lucky the Lakes Region to the south of the White Mountains should be coming into high color and maybe a little bit of peak

In Maine (5-15 Oct), Central Maine is a question mark due to drought and the coastal areas are at heavier drought at this moment. So places like Acadia down through Camden and Rockport will be dependent on the drought, temperatures received and hurricanes coming up through the Atlantic.

Past the 15th of October is tough…

I’m going to leave from the 15th of October through the end of October open because, with less drought, possible hurricanes, insect defoliation, and actual temps/rain that we get, I JUST DON’T KNOW…

If you have to make plans from 15 Oct to the end of the month I would choose southern VT/NH, and ME and travel between those states and into the southern states of New England. But as of August, I’ve used up ALL of my guesses as to what we might get over the next couple of months…

I hope this helps you to make SOME of your plans…

Jeff Foliage Folger

Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage

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