9 September 2023, Foliage Report
Good Morning, Leaf Peeps… I’m sitting writing this report while drinking my Saturday morning coffee (not pumpkin spice) with the A/C on. And that is a problem, the A/C IS on… Those of you in the southern states are thinking, so? we’ve all been running the A/C. Well here in New England running the A/C… AND expecting fall colors do not go together!
First just a reminder, This image is a view of Cloudland Road, and unless you bring your walking shoes you will not be able to see it this year! From 23 September to 15 October, it is off-limits…
Due to people doing bad things (I know NONE of my readers would enter private property) but people have and they park up and down the road and they make a nuisance of themselves by walking down to the Sleepy Hollow Farm House or having a picnic or whatever these people do.
Well the town of Pomfret has taken action and the road will be closed to motorized traffic between 23 Sept and 15 Oct. Yes you can walk up there but finding someplace to park (legally) will be the next issue. I don’t believe you will find too many places that aren’t miles away.
The good news is that there are literally thousands of places in Vermont for you to explore, so get out there and find a new place and post it in our Facebook group to show us what you found.
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, The Foliage Report…
I don’t yet whether we will see which of these three… As always it will be some combination that will most likely be our reality. Let’s get started…
Today, 9 September, we’re looking at historic high temps leaving the region and while they will be replaced with “cooler” temps, will they be cool enough? Also, we have a (currently) Cat 4 hurricane (Lee) slowly heading along the eastern seaboard. At this time it’s anyone’s guess as to which track it will take. The worst case scenario is it makes landfall and drives up over the center of New England BUT… at this time, that is not one of the predicted tracks (whew!!!)
All through this week, folks who live along the eastern seaboard will be watching this closely. I’m going with the scenario that Lee is going to stay offshore and proceed up the coast. *Note, This is based on optimism only and a hope that this is what happens…
I think this is the best we can hope for. If it does happen then the coastal communities will get rain and winds which we don’t really need. It would be nice if Mother Nature gave us a vote…
The Outcome of this “Best” Scenario
I’ve been looking at the forecasted highs/lows for the next 10 days (till the 23rd or 1st full day of Autumn) and it doesn’t look good. You have heard me harp about “HOW Important the Temps Are” and that in order for the change in the leaves to really get going, we need cool to cold overnight temps. People know this because, in my Facebook comments, I see that Michael Mclaughlin on Facebook said, “Need a good cold snap and then it will begin….” And he’s not wrong (Yes I do pay attention to your comments on my social media even if I don’t respond to ALL of you) But it takes MORE than just one, we need soft warm SUNNY days and cold nighttime temps.
The problem that I’m seeing right now is that this may not be just a slow burn, it may be a SLOW BURN year which means that if you are showing up on 25 Sept you are liable to see a lot of green with just a smattering of color. The first week of October may be a bit better but it could be till the 2nd week of October before the colors really start to show…
Now I also want to say that the forecasts that you see me give here is just my “Best Guess” of what will happen over the next 10 days. We may also see by the 23rd of Sept that the the 10 days after that to be showing lows in the 40s and 30s. This is not a forecast but due to this really massive weather movement coming through (Hurricane Lee) we may see the Jet Stream bring more favorable temps after Lee passes. Or not, that is the problem I don’t know…
WILL we see this…
This has yet to be determined but I know whatever we get, it will be beautiful. That is the way of New England.
The Conclusion? It hasn’t been written yet!
As of now, we are looking forward and trying to guess what will happen and things are as clear as mud. I do not think this will be an easy season where around every turn in the road it will be wonderful fall colors. You may/will have some frustrations if you come here only looking for our fall colors, and then disappointment may be what you get.
This is the year for those plan “B’s” “ so dust off the Gazetteer for the state you are visiting and look for places of interest. The old Stone House Museum, The Museum of Everyday Life, Robert Frost’s different abodes in New Hampshire and Vermont, A Cranberry Bog down in MA, the Poets Tower out near Greenfield MA, or maybe the Giants Table (AKA Table Rock) in Tinmouth Vermont.
All of these places and so many more can turn your disappointment into a fun-filled day. Explore with an eye to making memories and even if you only find a single glorious red maple and two or three really unique and quirky things to explore, you will be exploring the right way! (Exploring 101 according to Jeff)
I’m hoping that as we get past next weekend, (maybe around the 23rd) we will have a better view of what is going to be presented to us. Generally, I only have a firm grasp on the weather four to five days out.
Long-range forecasting I leave up to the professionals (meteorologists) as they look at the types of high and low-pressure systems moving across the country. So stay tuned to this foliage channel and if you haven’t subscribed, put your email below to have these newsletters dropped in your inbox.
My goal is to give you a realistic view of what you will see when you get here. I want your expectations to be realistic and since I don’t work for the tourism companies in New England, I’m a little more unbiased in what I say. I can also BE VERY WRONG!!! So take everything I say with a grain of salt. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best! It will balance out somewhere between the two extremes. (Exploring 102 by Jeff)
Jeff Foliage Folger
Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage
- Visit my Fine Art America Gallery
- Visit my Amazon store to pick up New England-related materials
- Visit my Pictorem Gallery (Free shipping in the US and Canada)
- My Facebook foliage page
- Threads.net/@Jeff_Foliage
- Follow our new Fall Foliage FB Group!
- You can visit Lisa’s Artist Facebook Page by clicking here
Coming from a brutally awful summer in TX where everything is brown and has been for months, any bit of color will be exciting for me. 🙂
We had a cool snap for about 4 days here in Arkansas before it got back into the upper 90’s. That cool snap (lows in the upper 50s , lol) has some yellows starting to show. That is early for the Northwest Arkansas corner of the Ozarks.
Thanks for the update Tracy… it’s a weird year for weather…
Thanks Jeff. I always appreciate and value your email updates. Keeping fingers crossed for this year. 🤞🏼
I’m looking at the long range computer models and things could be looking better, we’ll have to put a brave face on… Until the actual weather gets here, then we will know what we actually get…
Jeff, any idea what Lenox Mass area will be like around Oct 19th? thanks, Denise
You should see color by that time. No guarantees on how much but you should see some…
Thank you for your work on this post it really helps!
I’m getting married next Saturday (September 23rd) at Sugarloaf in Maine. I was hoping for colors to come a week-ish early this year but it looks like the warm temps have really slowed things down. I think there has only been 1 night of nighttime low in the 40’s which is abnormal given the average low for the middle of September is 46 – 50 degrees in this area, particularly in the valleys.
Everyone talks about the crisp sunny days and cool nights needed to kick-off the foliage. Is there a specific low I should be hoping for next week? Depending on which weather site I look at, it looks we could get 2-3 nights next week of lows in the 45-50 degree range. Is that going to be enough to get things going?
I really enjoy your work, thanks!
Think cool or even cold thoughts and we want the thermostat to get turned down to 37.5 degrees overnight for the next week to see even a little color. You might see a little color in the swampy areas but from this coming Wednesday on it is looking mostly sunny through the 24th to 25th… so you should have a wonderful visit all the same.