16 Sept Fall Foliage Report, Hurricane/Storm Lee!
Welcome my Leaf-Peepers to another chapter of “As the Leaf Turns”... It’s been since 2012 since we had a Hurricane make landfall in New Englandl so this is one more factor to consider in your plans for 2023.
Hurricane Lee is heading up the Atlantic Seaboard as I write this and unlike other hurricanes from years past that came up and over the top of one or more of the New England States. Lee won’t be a direct hit (More or less). It will give Maine a little tussle but probably not more than some downed branches and a flooded road or two. So, it also will “Graze” Massachusetts and New Hampshire, it will travel up and over Eastern Maine dumping Rain and wind on them and Nova Scotia.
Currently Hurrican Lee has dropped from a Cat 1 hurricane (sustained winds of 74-95 mph) to a Really BIG Storm and due to traveling over the colder waters of the Atlantic east of us, it may be lowering its impact. (Yaaaa!).
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The Possible Impact of Lee
A lot of you may be assuming rain and wind at this time are not a big deal (how much worse can it be?) But my take on this is my own. (you won’t read this anywhere else I bet) The problem with rain from Lee is that I feel that the Hurricane is picking up water from the ocean and depositing it in the form of salty rain along the coast. This salt-laden rain may be another negative factor that the trees will have to deal with. We also won’t be able to really measure the impact because there are several funguses that are already impacting the leaves. (turning brown and falling as we speak)
What are we “Needing” to get the colors to turn?
In the weeks before their transformation, the trees prefer warm, sunny days (72 degrees) and crisp, cool nights (37-42 degrees). A “soft” frost is okay but a “hard frost or freeze” (below 32 degrees) is not what we want to see. Also not just one night! We want to see weeks of these sunny days and cold nights, leading up to the 1st of October for the big explosion of fall colors.
The Next 10 days, Helpful? Maybe…
Okay, the 10 days across New England are starting to look… more helpful. I’m seeing forecasts of a stretch of 5-6 days of sunny weather with Temps in the low 70s [BULLSEYE] Just what we want to see. But!!! The low temps are between 49-55 (except on the top of Mount Washington where it’s 39 degrees) and this is not as helpful as I would like to see. But it’s a start…
The last 3-4 days of the 10-day forecast (25-27 September) is back to cloudy with a bit of rain… (Not helpful Mother Nature!)
As of now going into the 1st of October the overnight temps are not helping us that much to speed up the process (So Slow Burn is the name of this game). This does not mean there will be NO fall color. It does mean it will be harder to find between 25 Sept and 1 Oct.
The leaves are turning Mostly because of the shortening of the days and they will turn, just more slowly.
Fall Foliage Report this Week across New England?
I’m sorry to say that I don’t really have any images myself this week as I’ve had a cold/sinus infection that I’m getting over… (I’m so over coughing and sniffling) I did launch my drone last night and got this hyper-lapse sunset. 10 minutes of taking 175 images combined into 7 seconds of video. Lee was making the drone jump around but the drone did a good job of maintaining its position.
Massachusetts
Mark Spremulli of Mark Spremulli Photography sent in this image of Cape Cod
Connecticut/Rhode Island
Jonathan Steele Photography sent this image from Connecticut and as I would expect, it’s green in CT as of today.
Let’s just say these areas are green, very green right now.
Vermont
Photographer – Brian Drourr Photography sent in this image from the Champlain Valley of Vermont
Brian says a lot of green and there are spots where brown leaves are coming down. We’ll see what October holds.
Image submitted by John Rowe Photography of Spectacle & Island Ponds
Still a lot of Green in Northern Vermont.
New Hampshire
Chris Whiton of White Mountian Images took this image of Pondicherry Wildlife Refuge this week.
Jim Salge Photography submitted this image of what we will see more of this year than in past years.
Mixed maples and pines can be really beautiful but in this spot in southern New Hampshire, the fungus is showing that these leaves will soon be on the ground. In cases like this, you’ll just have to move your feet to see if it gets better.
Maine
As you can see in central Maine there is some change starting to show in this area. It’s not bright or widespread but it can be seen and to my eyes it’s right on time. Here are four images from the Eastern White Mountains of Maine Around Evans Notch and the Basin. All were shot on 29 Sept 2022.
Jeff’s Thoughts for 17 through 24 September
Well if you are up here this coming week you are WAY TOO EARLY… But if you had to be here as I just told Caleb who is getting married in North Western Maine From Wednesday through Sunday, each day is supposed to be sunny (just not as cool as I would like each night.
You will need to unpack those Plan B’s and enjoy what you do find. Look for cider donuts, maple Cremees and covered bridges to explore. None of these things require the fall colors but they make them a bit more fun…
7 days till the First Day of Autumn and Mother Nature is playing it close to her vest. I think will not see meaningful color until 1 October this year and any color before that will be the luck of the draw.
A drive along the Kanc is always great at this time of the year but it will be without the fall colors until around the 1st of October.
Jeff Foliage Folger
Autumn is a state of mind more than a time of year – Jeff Foliage
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Hi Jeff! Thanks for all of your help. I may be overreacting a bit (I think I’ve read too many doom and gloom reports out there especially in Facebook groups) but should I be concerned about a trip from October 7th – 12th? Staying in the White Mountains. Surely there will be good foliage right? Should I be concerned at all? (I’m aware that it may not be as great as other years, but any New England fall foliage tour is better than most!) Thanks again!
Hi Trish,
Every 4-5 years we seem to have a significant down year event. To me 2017 was the last big one with 90 degree temps in late Sept to the beginning of Of October. and 2011 with Hurricane Katrina. There have been other years in between with weather events but they weren’t big events (late Oct Hurricane in 2012 comes to mind that because of when it arrived, it didn’t affect most visitors except for Halloween)…
So Doom and Gloom depends on your expectations. And expectations are what I want people to be ready with. This will NOT be 2020 or 2022 with incredible fall colors. Your dates of Oct 7-12 in the White Mountains are fine. I don’t know what the colors are going to do but you have several routes north out of the WM’s to head west to Vermont or east to Maine. You can also go south into the Lakes region (which is where I’ll be from the 12-15th) So I can head north into the southern WM’s or even the northern WM’s.
So make up your plan B list and be ready to explore…
Jeff, do you expect this year to be 2017 like or more of an in between year?
I hope it’s nothing like 2017… Right now we’re in a weekend cycle that seems to be giving up rain every 5-7 days on the weekends… I do hope that ends! But at this time I see nothing indicating a heatwave like in 2017…
Thank you, Jeff! Do you think Oct 17 – 21 would be too late for a trip to Vermont/NH? What’s your “guess” as to the best stretch of days to visit this year?
Well Callie, This year can go a few ways once we get to later in Oct like that. I would choose maybe a North Massachusetts location straddling the border between VT and NH and still allowing you to go up and say, Nope! nothing and head back into Massachusetts or even head south into CT… Flexibility is key.
If the temps drop in early Oct then we will have a good chance of seeing real good colors on your dates. Right now I can only hope as I look forward 10 days at the forecasts. Nobody makes any kind of reliable predictions beyond that so I have to “hope” the temps are going to cooperate. Also starting next weekend it looks like 6-7 days of mixed weather (rain/clouds) so I’m holding my breath…
Hi Jeff,
We’re planning a visit to Portland Maine in October. Our options are the week of Oct 8 – 15 or Oct 21 – 28. Any thoughts, recommendations on which week will have better foliage this year? Love your reports, Thanks!
Hi Cheryl, Probably the 8-15 is the best bet right now…
I am planning Stowe,VT and NH white mountains specifically Conway and Lincoln area from 7-10th oct
Shall I move dates forward or to continue with this dates looking to the weather!
The weather is what it will be… The dates are not bad. Check the reports on my website https://jeff-foliage.com/archives/forecasts-reports/
And my FB page https://www.facebook.com/NewEnglandFoliage/
Hi Jeff – a group of us from California will be going to North Conway NH 10/1-10/2 and around Portland Maine 10/2-10/4. I sure hope we see colors. We’ve been planning this trip for sometime. Any thoughts?
Thanks! Christina
Hi Christina, A bit early for N. Conway. When you get there, jump on the train (the longer trip) up through Crawford Notch and you should see really good color or Drive up Route 302 through the Notch. or even up to Dixville Notch. (Route 26) if you need better fall color.
Portland being on the water less so but beautiful all the same. Visit the lighthouse and enjoy!
I just came down from Crawford Notch and it is beautiful on the northern end and points north
Hi! I am planning a trip with my mom in early November. I know this is late in the season but is there anything to still be seen or should I hope that we can make that trip another year?
Thanks!!
Laura
There is still some color along the coast, you could do Mystic Seaport and maybe visit the mansions along the coast.
Thanks for the tips Jeff!
no problem
Hi Jeff — Yankee Mag’s foliage map now predicts that colors in Vermont will peak between Oct. 19 and 29: https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/vermont/2023/09/22/leaves-turning-color-in-vermont-but-peak-could-be-delayed/70921358007/. Does that sound right to you, given the weather forecasts? And does that mean the peak in the White Mountains will also be delayed?
Thanks so much!
This is where I will disagree with them. AS OF RIGHT NOW… The temps and the amount of sun over the next 7-10 days is going to have a big impact. Per todays article https://jeff-foliage.com/2023/09/23/fall-foliage-update-23-september-2023-23-9-23/
I said this week could develop nicely (some lows forecast in VT and NH in the 30s, low 40s, and low 50s) and with that, the following week “could” see very good if not a few pockets of color. The big joker here is the amount of rain we got and how that affects the hand we are dealt. Could Jim and Yankee be right? Sure they have a lot of experience in that building. but I feel a lot is going to rest on the actual weather we get between now and 5 Oct as far as the colors we get.
Thanks, Jeff, that’s very helpful and reassuring. I was panicking after seeing that article because I’m planning to be in the White Mountains from Oct 5 to Oct 9 and the Northeast Kingdom and Stowe from Oct 9 to 14th. Do you think it makes sense to push the dates back by 3-4 days, or would that just increase the chance of missing peak colors?
Thanks again!
Right now the only problem for that weekend is the forecast is rain on the 7th and maybe a little on the 8th…